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Wage Pressure

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Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker — monthly smoothed confirmation of wage stickiness and higher-for-longer risk

Module/Macro Pricing
Wage Pressure SignalCooling
Overall Wage Growth3.5%
Job Stayer Wage Growth3.3%
Job Switcher Wage Growth3.7%
Monthly Change-0.1 ppt
What To Watch
  • Whether overall wage growth stays above the 3.5%-4.0% zone and persists for several months.
  • Whether job-stayer wage growth remains high, pointing to stickiness rather than only switcher premia.
  • Whether wage pressure aligns with CPI/PCE, breakevens, and policy expectations; only alignment strengthens the higher-for-longer story.
What Can Mislead
  • The Wage Growth Tracker is monthly and smoothed; it explains stickiness better than intraday yield moves.
  • Higher switcher wages can reflect labor mix or switching premia; if stayers do not confirm, avoid over-reading broad wage pressure.
Data Lineage

Sourced through FRED from the Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker. It is a monthly, smoothed labor-cost confirmation layer for inflation stickiness and higher-for-longer analysis, not a live market driver.

Sources: Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker via FRED

Interpretation

Wage Pressure tracks whether labor income growth is sticky enough to reinforce services inflation and a higher-for-longer policy path. It is monthly confirmation, not a live yield driver.

Why It Matters

Wage data strengthens the rates story only when it aligns with CPI/PCE, breakevens, and policy expectations; switcher wages alone can overstate broad pressure.

Warnings
  • The Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker is monthly and smoothed, so it should not explain intraday Treasury moves.
  • Switcher wage growth can reflect labor mix or switching premia; broad wage pressure needs confirmation from overall and stayer wages.
Data Tables
Latest Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker Signals
SeriesLabelDateValueFormatted Value
FRBATLWGT3MMAUMHWGOWage Growth Tracker Overall2026-05-013.53.5%
FRBATLWGT3MMAUMHWGJMJSTWage Growth Tracker Job Stayer2026-05-013.33.3%
FRBATLWGT3MMAUMHWGJMJSWWage Growth Tracker Job Switcher2026-05-013.73.7%

Sources·Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker via FRED as of 2026-05-01