Compounder

Cracker Barrel Old Country

Held by 1 superinvestor (CBRL).

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

This quarter1 opened

Valuation

Earnings Power & Asset Floor
Two intrinsic-value methods and a tangible asset floor — deterministic, not price forecasts or recommendations.
In fair-value rangePrice sits within both methods' value estimate.
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$53
cheaper$40 – $54 value estimatepricier

Cracker Barrel Old Country (CBRL): Two methods value the business — a conservative owner-earnings DCF and a growth-credited Greenwald estimate, $40–$54 / sh. Today’s price sits inside both (price $53 as of 2026-06-26).

Model cautions

  • Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).

An observation from two valuation methods — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Price as of 2026-06-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.4% @ 2026-06-25.

Method & numbers

Owner-earnings DCF $39.71 – $53.54 · Greenwald $52.94 – $52.94 (neutral $52.94) · zero-growth base $52.94 · reproduction $20.47

Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 37% of present value · owner-earnings yield 9% vs 10Y 4.4%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$32.55 – $43.67 / sh

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

Years: 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2017

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (ok) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).

Buffett owner-earnings value$43.31 – $52.94 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2017

v1 simplifications: Net income is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized owner earnings anchored to the latest year — no peak-earnings capitalization (audit #2). Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (ok); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the same 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy (theoretically the cost of equity is higher; v2 simplification, v3 to refine).

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $455.71M = $20.47 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

Growth value: if the moat holds for 8 yr at ROIIC ≈ -169%, $0.00–$0.00 / sh (neutral $0.00). Conservative, not a forecast.

Window FY 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2017 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 4% (Average effective tax rate over 1 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 0% (history declining → capped at 0) · OE FY 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2017 · Discount band: 8.90%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-06-25). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. Two-method midpoint gap 15%.

Superinvestors Holding This Security

Ownership overview

Cracker Barrel Old Country (CBRL) is held by 1 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $251,163 in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Lee Ainslie, where it makes up 0.0% of the portfolio.

Over the latest quarter, 1 of the tracked filers opened a new position in CBRL, 0 added to existing ones, 0 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-03-31. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

Holders over time

Superinvestors holding this security over the last 4 quarters: 2 → 1.

Early quarters may understate holder counts due to data backfill — read the slope with care.

Key facts & links

Ticker
CBRL
Total value held
$251,163
Largest holder
Lee Ainslie
External

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-05-15

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