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Advance Auto Parts Inc

AAPAbove value

Held by 2 superinvestors.

Price$42.58
Holders2
Total value$274.8M

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

as of 2026-01-03

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-07-18 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

Revenue growth
-5.4%
Net margin
0.5%
ROE
2.0%
FCF margin
-3.5%
Revenue $10.11B → $8.60B · 6y
What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

Above fair value

$15/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$43
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$21

Central IV

$15

Optimistic top

$21

Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP): A conservative value band $21 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $15. Today’s price sits above that band (price $43 as of 2026-08-21).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

  • Recent earnings are below the multi-year average, so the band uses the lower run-rate.

Revenue growth 0% (history declining, capped at zero) · moat 0 yr · discount 10.6% · Zero-growth downside $21

Price as of 2026-08-21 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-20.

Method & numbers

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $12.96 – $16.92 · Greenwald zero-growth $20.66 · zero-growth base $20.66 · reproduction $20.66

Moat Below asset base · terminal value 37% of present value · owner-earnings yield 4% vs 10Y 4.7%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$-0.14 – $0.80 / sh

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

Years: TTM 2026-07-18, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 73% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).

Buffett owner-earnings value$14.13 – $17.27 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: TTM 2026-07-18, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Net income is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized owner earnings anchored to the latest year — no peak-earnings capitalization (audit #2). Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 73% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $1.26B = $20.66 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

Growth value gated to zero — no moat or ROIIC ≤ WACC, so no growth value is credited.

Window TTM 2026-07-18, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 0% (history declining → capped at 0) · OE FY TTM 2026-07-18, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.19%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-08-20). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-07-18 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

2 holders · $274.8M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -1 exited

This quarter2 added1 exited
Holders 1 → 2 · last 8q
Exited this quarter (1)
Ray Dalio

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP) is held by 2 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $274.8M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Richard Pzena, where it makes up 0.8% of the portfolio.

Other notable holders by value include Tweedy, Browne (0.1% of its book).

Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in AAP, 2 added to existing ones, 0 trimmed, and 1 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

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Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

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