Capital One Financial Corp
COFAbove valueHeld by 19 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2025-12-31Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-03-31 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- +36.3%
- Net margin
- 30.4%
- ROE
- 2.2%
- FCF margin
- 324.2%
Valuation · value band
Above fair value
Zero-growth floor
$109
Central IV
$57
Optimistic top
$109
Capital One Financial Corp (COF): A conservative value band $109 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $57. Today’s price sits above that band (price $217 as of 2026-08-26).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
- Recent earnings are below the multi-year average, so the band uses the lower run-rate.
Revenue growth 0% (history declining, capped at zero) · moat 0 yr · discount 10.6% · Zero-growth downside $109
Price as of 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-26.
Method & numbers
Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $50.53 – $66.19 · Greenwald zero-growth $108.55 · zero-growth base $108.55 · reproduction $108.55
Moat Below asset base · terminal value 37% of present value · owner-earnings yield 3% vs 10Y 4.7%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)
Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.
Normalized NOPAT from operating margin — not applicable when operating income is not reported separately. Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge (+ cash − total debt) — not applied (lens not assessable).
Years: TTM 2026-03-31, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
Buffett owner-earnings value$55.12 – $67.37 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-03-31, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Net income is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized owner earnings anchored to the latest year — no peak-earnings capitalization (audit #2). Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 165% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied. Financial issuer (bank/insurer): net debt / owner earnings does not describe a deposit-funded balance sheet, so no leverage premium is applied here; leverage is instead handled by the reliability gate.
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $67.67B = $108.55 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Growth value gated to zero — no moat or ROIIC ≤ WACC, so no growth value is credited.
Window TTM 2026-03-31, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 19% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 0% (history declining → capped at 0) · OE FY TTM 2026-03-31, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.16%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-08-26). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-03-31 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about 26.0% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 13.8% a year.
The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.
Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 17 more years to hold up.
Even when the value band is low-confidence: use this to see what the price assumes — not as a cheapness confirmation.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
19 holders · $10.19B combined · this quarter +3 opened / -2 exited
- Value$2.31BWeight (prev→now)2.5% → 3.1% ▲
- Value$1.83BWeight (prev→now)0.9% → 1.0% ▲
- Value$1.66BWeight (prev→now)7.2% → 7.1% ▼
- Value$1.28BWeight (prev→now)4.0% → 3.9% ▼
- Value$921.6MWeight (prev→now)2.7% → 2.7% ▼
- Value$601.9MWeight (prev→now)0.5% → 0.2% ▼
- Value$392.4MWeight (prev→now)6.1% → 6.1% ▼
- Value$277.8MWeight (prev→now)2.6% → 2.5% ▼
- Value$265.1MWeight (prev→now)9.0% → 10.2% ▲
- Value$198.4MWeight (prev→now)4.5% → 4.3% ▼
Show all 19 holders ▸Collapse ▾
- Value$165.5MWeight (prev→now)1.2% → 3.6% ▲
- Value$91.3MWeight (prev→now)2.2% → 2.6% ▲
- Value$77.8MWeight (prev→now)0.8% → 0.2% ▼
- Value$46.4MWeight (prev→now)0.1% → 0.1% ▼
- Value$29.2MWeight (prev→now)New · 0.1%
- Value$21.7MWeight (prev→now)New · 0.2%
- Value$18.3MWeight (prev→now)0.1% → 0.1% ▼
- Value$8.0MWeight (prev→now)New · 0.6%
- Value$637,570Weight (prev→now)0.1% → 0.1% ▼
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Capital One Financial Corp (COF) is held by 19 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $10.19B in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Bill Nygren, where it makes up 3.1% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Dodge & Cox (1.0% of its book), Christopher Davis (7.1% of its book) and Ravenel Boykin Curry (3.9% of its book).
Over the latest quarter, 3 of the tracked filers opened a new position in COF, 8 added to existing ones, 6 trimmed, and 2 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
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Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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