Carvana Co
CVNAAbove valueExpectations · demandingHeld by 8 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2025-12-31Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- +48.6%
- Net margin
- 6.9%
- ROE
- 40.9%
- FCF margin
- 4.4%
Valuation · value band
Above fair value
Zero-growth floor
$5
Central IV
$7
Optimistic top
$9
Carvana Co (CVNA): A conservative value band $5–$9 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $7. Today’s price sits above that band (price $74 as of 2026-08-26).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
Revenue growth 5% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 0 yr · discount 11.9% · Zero-growth downside $5
Price as of 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-26.
Method & numbers
Model cautions
- Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $5.11 – $8.77 · Greenwald zero-growth $5.83 · zero-growth base $5.83 · reproduction $5.36
Moat Below asset base · terminal value 43% of present value · owner-earnings yield 1% vs 10Y 4.7%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)
Normalized operating earnings net of maintenance capex are non-positive over the years shown; earnings power cannot be capitalized.
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex unavailable → degraded to the v1 simplification (maintenance capex = D&A, so the depreciation add-back nets to zero). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$4.89 – $5.83 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 10.3–12.3% band (9–11% base + 1.3pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex or D&A unavailable → degraded to normalized net income (= average net income over the years shown). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 1.3pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 5.7 years of owner earnings, adding 1.3pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $3.96B = $5.36 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Growth value gated to zero — no moat or ROIIC ≤ WACC, so no growth value is credited.
Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (No effective-rate data available; fell back to the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 5.7 years of owner earnings → +1.3pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 10.3%–12.3%.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 5% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022 · Discount band: 10.51%–13.35% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +1.35pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-08-26). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about over 30.0% (outside the usual range) a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 20.1% a year.
The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.
Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 26 more years to hold up.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
8 holders · $3.73B combined · this quarter +1 opened / -0 exited
- Value$1.48BWeight (prev→now)81.7% → 78.9% ▼
- Value$811.1MWeight (prev→now)2.4% → 2.3% ▼
- Value$692.5MWeight (prev→now)4.4% → 4.2% ▼
- Value$442.4MWeight (prev→now)3.2% → 4.3% ▲
- Value$173.7MWeight (prev→now)1.5% → 1.6% ▲
- Value$116.1MWeight (prev→now)31.1% → 30.3% ▼
- Value$9.9MWeight (prev→now)New · 0.2%
- Value$2.5MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▲
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Carvana Co (CVNA) is held by 8 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $3.73B in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Clifford Sosin, where it makes up 78.9% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Andreas Halvorsen (2.3% of its book), Stephen Mandel (4.2% of its book) and Henry Ellenbogen (4.3% of its book).
Over the latest quarter, 1 of the tracked filers opened a new position in CVNA, 7 added to existing ones, 0 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Carvana Co (CVNA) also commonly hold →
- Taiwan Semiconductor-Sp AdrTSM5 holders
- Meta Platforms Inc-Class AMETA5 holders
- Visa Inc-Class A SharesV4 holders
- Amazon.Com IncAMZN4 holders
- Microsoft CorpMSFT4 holders
- Natera IncNTRA4 holders
CVNA's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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