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Hf Sinclair Corp

DINOBelow valueExpectations · modest

Held by 3 superinvestors.

Price$96.52
Margin of safety<1%
Holders3
Total value$55.8M

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

as of 2025-12-31

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

Revenue growth
-6.0%
Net margin
2.2%
ROE
6.3%
FCF margin
3.2%
Revenue $11.18B → $26.87B · 6y
What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

Margin of safety

$97/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$97
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$63

Central IV

$97

Optimistic top

$315

Hf Sinclair Corp (DINO): Two methods value the business — a conservative owner-earnings DCF and a growth-credited Greenwald estimate, $63–$315 / sh. Today’s price sits below both (price $97 as of 2026-08-26).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

Revenue growth 4% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 10 yr · discount 10.6% · Zero-growth downside $63

Price as of 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-26.

Method & numbers

Model cautions

  • The two methods’ midpoints differ materially — growth assumptions warrant review (over 20%).

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $64.88 – $118.82 · Greenwald $171.13 – $315.06 (neutral $239.99) · zero-growth base $92.92 · reproduction $39.05

Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 48% of present value · owner-earnings yield 7% vs 10Y 4.7%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$75.51 – $92.92 / sh

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Only one maintenance-capex method available; estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).

Buffett owner-earnings value$63.49 – $77.60 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Only one maintenance-capex method available; estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $7.01B = $39.05 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

Assumes a narrow moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 10 years.

Growth value: if the moat holds for 10 yr at ROIIC ≈ 78%, $78.21–$222.14 / sh (neutral $147.07). Conservative, not a forecast.

Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 20% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 4% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.16%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-08-26). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. Two-method midpoint gap 85%.

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

What the price is betting

Today's price pencils in about 4.2% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 17.1% a year.

Below what it has already done.

Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 3 more years to hold up.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

3 holders · $55.8M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -0 exited

This quarter2 added1 trimmed
Holders 1 → 3 · last 8q

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

Hf Sinclair Corp (DINO) is held by 3 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $55.8M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Ray Dalio, where it makes up 0.1% of the portfolio.

Other notable holders by value include Chris Bloomstran (2.0% of its book) and Tweedy, Browne (0.2% of its book).

Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in DINO, 2 added to existing ones, 1 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

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DINO's price is below its conservative value band. Browse all undervalued stocks by margin of safety

Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

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