Graphic Packaging Holding Co
GPKAbove valueHeld by 2 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2025-12-31Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- -2.2%
- Net margin
- 5.2%
- ROE
- 13.3%
- FCF margin
- —
Valuation · value band
Above fair value
Zero-growth floor
$4
Central IV
$4
Optimistic top
$5
Graphic Packaging Holding Co (GPK): A conservative value band $4–$5 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $4. Today’s price sits above that band (price $11 as of 2026-08-26).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
- Recent earnings are below the multi-year average, so the band uses the lower run-rate.
Revenue growth 0% (history declining, capped at zero) · moat 0 yr · discount 14.6% · Zero-growth downside $4
Price as of 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.6% @ 2026-08-25.
Method & numbers
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $4.09 – $4.98 · Greenwald zero-growth $5.03 · zero-growth base $5.03 · reproduction $2.02
Moat Below asset base · terminal value 26% of present value · owner-earnings yield 6% vs 10Y 4.6%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$-6.19 – $-3.47 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex unavailable → degraded to the v1 simplification (maintenance capex = D&A, so the depreciation add-back nets to zero). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).
Buffett owner-earnings value$4.36 – $5.03 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 13.0–15.0% band (9–11% base + 4.0pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Net income is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized owner earnings anchored to the latest year — no peak-earnings capitalization (audit #2). Maintenance capex or D&A unavailable → degraded to normalized net income (= average net income over the years shown). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 4.0pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 28.1 years of owner earnings, adding 4.0pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $562.00M + capitalized R&D $38.40M（FY 2026, 2024, 2023, 2022） = $2.02 / sh. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Growth value gated to zero — no moat or ROIIC ≤ WACC, so no growth value is credited.
Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 28.1 years of owner earnings → +4.0pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 13.0%–15.0%.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 0% (history declining → capped at 0) · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 13.14%–16.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +4.00pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-08-25). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about 19.6% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 5.8% a year.
The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.
Even when the value band is low-confidence: use this to see what the price assumes — not as a cheapness confirmation.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
2 holders · $106.5M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -0 exited
- Value$105.2MWeight (prev→now)2.8% → 2.7% ▼
- Value$1.3MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Graphic Packaging Holding Co (GPK) is held by 2 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $106.5M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to David Einhorn, where it makes up 2.7% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Ray Dalio (0.0% of its book).
Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in GPK, 1 added to existing ones, 1 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Graphic Packaging Holding Co (GPK) also commonly hold →
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- P G & E CorpPCG2 holders
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- Centene CorpCNC2 holders
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Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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