Skip to content
Compounder
← Stocks

Harley-Davidson Inc

HOGWithin band

Held by 3 superinvestors.

Price$27.49
Holders3
Total value$230.3M

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

as of 2025-12-31

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

Revenue growth
-13.1%
Net margin
9.4%
ROE
10.8%
FCF margin
11.5%
Revenue $3.26B → $3.60B · 6y
What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

In fair-value range

$16/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$27
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$29

Central IV

$16

Optimistic top

$29

Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG): A conservative value band $29 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $16. Today’s price sits inside that band (price $27 as of 2026-08-25).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

  • Recent earnings are below the multi-year average, so the band uses the lower run-rate.

Revenue growth 0% (history declining, capped at zero) · moat 0 yr · discount 10.6% · Zero-growth downside $29

Price as of 2026-08-25 · yahoo · DGS10 4.6% @ 2026-08-25.

Method & numbers

Price is at or below the reproducible tangible asset base ($29 / sh) — a rarer, harder floor.

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $14.45 – $18.97 · Greenwald zero-growth $28.84 · zero-growth base $28.84 · reproduction $28.84

Moat Below asset base · terminal value 37% of present value · owner-earnings yield 6% vs 10Y 4.6%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$10.91 – $14.04 / sh

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 79% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).

Buffett owner-earnings value$15.76 – $19.27 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Net income is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized owner earnings anchored to the latest year — no peak-earnings capitalization (audit #2). Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 79% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $3.04B + capitalized R&D $95.44M（FY 2023, 2022） = $28.84 / sh. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

Growth value gated to zero — no moat or ROIIC ≤ WACC, so no growth value is credited.

Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 0% (history declining → capped at 0) · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.14%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-08-25). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

What the price is betting

Today's price pencils in about 9.9% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 0.6% a year.

The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.

Even when the value band is low-confidence: use this to see what the price assumes — not as a cheapness confirmation.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

3 holders · $230.3M combined · this quarter +1 opened / -0 exited

This quarter1 opened1 added1 trimmed
Holders 1 → 3 · last 8q

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) is held by 3 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $230.3M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Donald Smith, where it makes up 4.0% of the portfolio.

Other notable holders by value include Ray Dalio (0.0% of its book) and Jeremy Grantham (0.0% of its book).

Over the latest quarter, 1 of the tracked filers opened a new position in HOG, 1 added to existing ones, 1 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

Also held by these investors

Investors holding Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) also commonly hold →

See which stocks look cheap against a conservative value band. Browse all valued stocks

Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

Stay Updated

New-quarter 13F moves and valuation updates, to your inbox.