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Lear Corp

LEAWithin bandExpectations · modest

Held by 5 superinvestors.

Price$122.90
Holders5
Total value$1.10B

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

as of 2025-12-31

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-07-04 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

Revenue growth
-0.2%
Net margin
1.9%
ROE
8.7%
FCF margin
2.3%
Revenue $17.05B → $23.26B · 6y
What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

In fair-value range

$105/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$123
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$89

Central IV

$105

Optimistic top

$182

Lear Corp (LEA): Two methods value the business — a conservative owner-earnings DCF and a growth-credited Greenwald estimate, $89–$182 / sh. Today’s price sits inside both (price $123 as of 2026-08-24).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

Revenue growth 1% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 10 yr · discount 10.8% · Zero-growth downside $89

Price as of 2026-08-24 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-21.

Method & numbers

Model cautions

  • Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).
  • The two methods’ midpoints differ materially — growth assumptions warrant review (over 20%).

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $84.71 – $122.84 · Greenwald $130.98 – $182.15 (neutral $155.38) · zero-growth base $120.73 · reproduction $64.81

Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 40% of present value · owner-earnings yield 8% vs 10Y 4.7%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$92.64 – $120.73 / sh

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

Years: TTM 2026-07-04, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 56% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).

Buffett owner-earnings value$89.11 – $108.50 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9.2–11.2% band (9–11% base + 0.2pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: TTM 2026-07-04, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 56% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 0.2pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 3.4 years of owner earnings, adding 0.2pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $3.29B = $64.81 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

Assumes a narrow moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 10 years.

Growth value: if the moat holds for 10 yr at ROIIC ≈ 23%, $10.25–$61.42 / sh (neutral $34.65). Conservative, not a forecast.

Window TTM 2026-07-04, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 3.4 years of owner earnings → +0.2pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 9.2%–11.2%.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 1% · OE FY TTM 2026-07-04, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.43%–12.19% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +0.19pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-08-21). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. Two-method midpoint gap 39%.

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-07-04 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

What the price is betting

Today's price pencils in about 4.3% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 6.6% a year.

Below what it has already done.

Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 6 more years to hold up.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

5 holders · $1.10B combined · this quarter +0 opened / -0 exited

This quarter1 added4 trimmed
Holders 6 → 5 · last 8q

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

Lear Corp (LEA) is held by 5 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $1.10B in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Richard Pzena, where it makes up 2.6% of the portfolio.

Other notable holders by value include Edgar Wachenheim (2.3% of its book), Jeremy Grantham (0.0% of its book) and Ray Dalio (0.0% of its book).

Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in LEA, 1 added to existing ones, 4 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

Also held by these investors

Investors holding Lear Corp (LEA) also commonly hold →

LEA's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks

Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

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