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Lamb Weston Holdings Inc

LWAbove valueExpectations · demanding

Held by 3 superinvestors.

Price$53.47
Holders3
Total value$2.8M

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

as of 2026-05-31
Revenue growth
+2.5%
Net margin
4.4%
ROE
15.9%
FCF margin
8.2%
Revenue $3.67B → $6.61B · 6y
What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

Above fair value

$13/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$53
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$5

Central IV

$13

Optimistic top

$15

Lamb Weston Holdings Inc (LW): A conservative value band $5–$15 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $13. Today’s price sits above that band (price $53 as of 2026-08-20).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

Revenue growth 4% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 10 yr · discount 14.6% · Zero-growth downside $5

Price as of 2026-08-20 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-19.

Method & numbers

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $9.84 – $14.80 · Greenwald zero-growth $10.98 · zero-growth base $10.98 · reproduction $4.67

Moat Franchise (via earnings growth) · terminal value 34% of present value · owner-earnings yield 3% vs 10Y 4.7%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$2.77 – $9.55 / sh

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Only one maintenance-capex method available; estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).

Buffett owner-earnings value$9.51 – $10.98 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 13.0–15.0% band (9–11% base + 4.0pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Net income is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized owner earnings anchored to the latest year — no peak-earnings capitalization (audit #2). Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Only one maintenance-capex method available; estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 4.0pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 19.5 years of owner earnings, adding 4.0pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $586.50M + capitalized R&D $62.46M（FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021） = $4.67 / sh. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

Assumes a narrow moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 10 years.

Growth value gated to zero — franchise via earnings-growth bypass; growth credit stays in the owner-earnings DCF only.

Window FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 19.5 years of owner earnings → +4.0pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 13.0%–15.0%.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 4% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 13.15%–16.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +4.00pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-08-19). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.

What the price is betting

Today's price pencils in about over 30.0% (outside the usual range) a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 13.7% a year.

The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.

Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 38 more years to hold up.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

3 holders · $2.8M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -0 exited

This quarter2 added
Holders 2 → 3 · last 8q

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

Lamb Weston Holdings Inc (LW) is held by 3 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $2.8M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Tweedy, Browne, where it makes up 0.1% of the portfolio.

Other notable holders by value include Jeremy Grantham (0.0% of its book) and Ray Dalio (0.0% of its book).

Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in LW, 2 added to existing ones, 0 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

Also held by these investors

Investors holding Lamb Weston Holdings Inc (LW) also commonly hold →

LW's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks

Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

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