Moody's Corp
MCOAbove valueExpectations · demandingHeld by 20 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2025-12-31Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- +8.9%
- Net margin
- 31.9%
- ROE
- 60.7%
- FCF margin
- 33.4%
Valuation · value band
Above fair value
Zero-growth floor
$117
Central IV
$208
Optimistic top
$311
Moody's Corp (MCO): Two methods value the business — a conservative owner-earnings DCF and a growth-credited Greenwald estimate, $117–$311 / sh. Today’s price sits above both (price $515 as of 2026-08-26).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
Revenue growth 5% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 20 yr · discount 10.6% · Zero-growth downside $117
Price as of 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-26.
Method & numbers
Model cautions
- The two methods’ midpoints differ materially — growth assumptions warrant review (over 20%).
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $136.87 – $254.56 · Greenwald $194.14 – $310.77 (neutral $260.15) · zero-growth base $161.75
Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 22% of present value · owner-earnings yield 3% vs 10Y 4.7%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$116.88 – $149.83 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 166% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$132.34 – $161.75 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 166% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).
Asset floor: Reproduction value = tangible net assets + acquired-intangible reset proxy, ÷ diluted shares; tangible net assets alone are negative for this asset-light franchise (no R&D history to capitalize).
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Assumes a wide moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 20 years (earnings intact, ROIC stable over history).
Growth value: if the moat holds for 20 yr at ROIIC ≈ 175%, $32.39–$149.02 / sh (neutral $98.39). Conservative, not a forecast.
Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 5% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.16%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-08-26). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. Two-method midpoint gap 22%.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about 16.0% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 6.7% a year.
The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
20 holders · $20.06B combined · this quarter +3 opened / -1 exited
- Value$11.17BWeight (prev→now)4.1% → 3.7% ▼
- Value$6.49BWeight (prev→now)13.8% → 12.3% ▼
- Value$771.9MWeight (prev→now)7.5% → 7.5% ▼
- Value$596.6MWeight (prev→now)17.0% → 19.1% ▲
- Value$524.0MWeight (prev→now)8.9% → 10.3% ▲
- Value$193.8MWeight (prev→now)4.4% → 4.5% ▲
- Value$137.1MWeight (prev→now)9.1% → 3.2% ▼
- Value$96.9MWeight (prev→now)0.8% → 0.7% ▼
- Value$15.4MWeight (prev→now)New · 5.7%
- Value$13.7MWeight (prev→now)New · 0.1%
Show all 20 holders ▸Collapse ▾
- Value$13.1MWeight (prev→now)New · 0.0%
- Value$12.2MWeight (prev→now)8.7% → 8.5% ▼
- Value$8.2MWeight (prev→now)1.1% → 1.2% ▲
- Value$5.6MWeight (prev→now)0.1% → 0.1% ▼
- Value$2.6MWeight (prev→now)0.6% → 0.5% ▼
- Value$862,813Weight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▲
- Value$679,380Weight (prev→now)0.3% → 0.3% ▲
- Value$549,392Weight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
- Value$213,325Weight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
- Value$16,200Weight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Moody's Corp (MCO) is held by 20 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $20.06B in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Warren Buffett, where it makes up 3.7% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Chris Hohn (12.3% of its book), John Armitage (7.5% of its book) and Dev Kantesaria (19.1% of its book).
Over the latest quarter, 3 of the tracked filers opened a new position in MCO, 1 added to existing ones, 5 trimmed, and 1 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Moody's Corp (MCO) also commonly hold →
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MCO's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-17
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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