Medline Inc-Cl A
MDLNAbove valueExpectations · demandingHeld by 5 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2025-12-31Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-27 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- +11.5%
- Net margin
- 4.1%
- ROE
- 10.8%
- FCF margin
- 4.6%
Valuation · value band
Above fair value
Zero-growth floor
$8
Central IV
$13
Optimistic top
$15
Medline Inc-Cl A (MDLN): A conservative value band $8–$15 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $13. Today’s price sits above that band (price $35 as of 2026-08-26).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
Revenue growth 7% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 10 yr · discount 14.1% · Zero-growth downside $8
Price as of 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-26.
Method & numbers
Buybacks over the years shown roughly only offset stock-based-compensation dilution — read them as maintaining the share count, not a net return of capital.
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $8.95 – $14.76 · Greenwald zero-growth $12.50 · zero-growth base $12.50 · reproduction $1.06
Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 37% of present value · owner-earnings yield 3% vs 10Y 4.7%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$8.07 – $12.50 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: TTM 2026-06-27, 2024, 2023
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 74% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).
Buffett owner-earnings value$8.12 – $9.42 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 12.5–14.5% band (9–11% base + 3.5pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-06-27, 2024, 2023
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 74% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 3.5pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 10.1 years of owner earnings, adding 3.5pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $-10.04B + capitalized R&D $144.20M（FY 2026, 2024, 2023） = $1.06 / sh. Reproduction value = intangible-inclusive net reproduction (tangible net assets + acquired-intangible reset proxy + capitalized R&D), ÷ diluted shares; tangible net assets alone are negative for this asset-light franchise.
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Assumes a narrow moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 10 years.
Growth value not assessable — No positive growth reinvestment in the matured window, so ROIIC cannot be computed.
Window TTM 2026-06-27, FY 2024, 2023 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 11% (Average effective tax rate over 3 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 10.1 years of owner earnings → +3.5pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 12.5%–14.5%.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 7% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-27, 2024, 2023 · Discount band: 12.70%–15.54% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +3.54pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-08-26). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-27 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about 27.2% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 10.6% a year.
The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
5 holders · $1.77B combined · this quarter +1 opened / -1 exited
- Value$827.0MWeight (prev→now)4.2% → 5.1% ▲
- Value$649.6MWeight (prev→now)2.2% → 6.3% ▲
- Value$190.9MWeight (prev→now)1.4% → 0.5% ▼
- Value$103.6MWeight (prev→now)3.3% → 1.0% ▼
- Value$782,766Weight (prev→now)New · 0.0%
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Medline Inc-Cl A (MDLN) is held by 5 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $1.77B in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Stephen Mandel, where it makes up 5.1% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include John Armitage (6.3% of its book), Andreas Halvorsen (0.5% of its book) and Henry Ellenbogen (1.0% of its book).
Over the latest quarter, 1 of the tracked filers opened a new position in MDLN, 2 added to existing ones, 2 trimmed, and 1 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Medline Inc-Cl A (MDLN) also commonly hold →
- Visa Inc-Class A SharesV4 holders
- Interactive Brokers Gro-Cl AIBKR4 holders
- Amazon.Com IncAMZN3 holders
- Carvana CoCVNA3 holders
- Taiwan Semiconductor-Sp AdrTSM3 holders
- Applied Materials IncAMAT3 holders
MDLN's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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