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Mercadolibre Inc

MELIAbove value

Held by 10 superinvestors.

Price$1950.44
Holders10
Total value$3.31B

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

as of 2025-12-31

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

Revenue growth
+34.3%
Net margin
9.8%
ROE
29.6%
FCF margin
53.0%
Revenue $3.97B → $20.34B · 6y
What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

Above fair value

$1,131/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$1,950
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$243

Central IV

$1,131

Optimistic top

$1,432

Mercadolibre Inc (MELI): A conservative value band $243–$1,432 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $1,131. Today’s price sits above that band (price $1,950 as of 2026-08-26).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

  • Capex doubled in two years, so maintenance is hard to pin down — read the band conservatively.

Revenue growth 20% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 20 yr · discount 11.6% · Zero-growth downside $243

Price as of 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-26.

Method & numbers

Model cautions

  • Capex doubled within two years: maintenance is floored then capped at D&A (OE may look optimistic); Greenwald growth value is closed — growth credit stays in the owner-earnings DCF only.
  • Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).
  • Growth nearly matches the discount rate — the estimate is sensitive to assumptions.

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $342.28 – $1,431.55 · Greenwald zero-growth $417.64 · zero-growth base $417.64 · reproduction $243.16

Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 30% of present value · owner-earnings yield 1% vs 10Y 4.7%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$316.69 – $417.64 / sh

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 122% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): maintenance capex floored at the D&A sustaining proxy (the growth-capex spike is not treated as maintenance). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).

Buffett owner-earnings value$226.13 – $271.22 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 10.0–12.0% band (9–11% base + 1.0pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 122% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): maintenance capex floored at the D&A sustaining proxy (the growth-capex spike is not treated as maintenance). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 1.0pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 5.1 years of owner earnings, adding 1.0pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $7.64B + capitalized R&D $4.69B（FY 2026, 2024, 2023, 2022） = $243.16 / sh. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

Assumes a wide moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 20 years (earnings intact, ROIC stable over history).

Growth value gated to zero — capex doubled within two years (AI-hog); growth credit stays in the owner-earnings DCF only.

Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 5.1 years of owner earnings → +1.0pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 10.0%–12.0%.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 20% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 10.19%–13.03% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +1.03pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-08-26). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

What the price is betting

Today's price pencils in about 26.7% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 34.8% a year.

Below what it has already done.

Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 9 more years to hold up.

Even when the value band is low-confidence: use this to see what the price assumes — not as a cheapness confirmation.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

10 holders · $3.31B combined · this quarter +0 opened / -3 exited

This quarter5 added4 trimmed3 exited
Holders 4 → 10 · last 8q
Exited this quarter (3)
Lee AinslieQuincy LeeStanley Druckenmiller

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

Mercadolibre Inc (MELI) is held by 10 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $3.31B in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Ravenel Boykin Curry, where it makes up 7.3% of the portfolio.

Other notable holders by value include Henry Ellenbogen (5.1% of its book), Chase Coleman (1.1% of its book) and Polen Capital (0.4% of its book).

Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in MELI, 5 added to existing ones, 4 trimmed, and 3 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

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Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

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