Microsoft Corp
MSFTWithin bandExpectations · fairHeld by 43 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2026-06-30- Revenue growth
- +17.8%
- Net margin
- 40.3%
- ROE
- 30.2%
- FCF margin
- 20.2%
Valuation · value band
In fair-value range
Zero-growth floor
$130
Central IV
$429
Optimistic top
$548
Microsoft Corp (MSFT): A conservative value band $130–$548 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $429. Today’s price sits inside that band (price $496 as of 2026-08-26).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
Revenue growth 14% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 20 yr · discount 10.6% · Zero-growth downside $130
Price as of 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.6% @ 2026-08-25.
Method & numbers
Model cautions
- Capex doubled within two years: maintenance is floored then capped at D&A (OE may look optimistic); Greenwald growth value is closed — growth credit stays in the owner-earnings DCF only.
- Growth nearly matches the discount rate — the estimate is sensitive to assumptions.
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $169.75 – $548.43 · Greenwald zero-growth $177.76 · zero-growth base $177.76 · reproduction $53.56
Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 30% of present value · owner-earnings yield 3% vs 10Y 4.6%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$144.97 – $177.76 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 166% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): flagged; the spike is treated as growth, not maintenance — owner earnings carry extra uncertainty. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$129.83 – $158.68 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 166% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): flagged; the spike is treated as growth, not maintenance — owner earnings carry extra uncertainty. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $304.13B + capitalized R&D $95.04B（FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021） = $53.56 / sh. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Assumes a wide moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 20 years (earnings intact, ROIC stable over history).
Growth value gated to zero — capex doubled within two years (AI-hog); growth credit stays in the owner-earnings DCF only.
Window FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 17% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 14% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.14%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-08-25). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about 15.8% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 14.0% a year.
About its own track record.
Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 16 more years to hold up.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
43 holders · $17.67B combined · this quarter +2 opened / -4 exited
- Value$4.79BWeight (prev→now)2.4% → 2.5% ▲
- Value$2.54BWeight (prev→now)5.8% → 5.7% ▼
- Value$2.09BWeight (prev→now)New · 15.3%
- Value$1.39BWeight (prev→now)5.0% → 4.2% ▼
- Value$870.8MWeight (prev→now)16.8% → 20.5% ▲
- Value$845.6MWeight (prev→now)4.1% → 3.5% ▼
- Value$782.8MWeight (prev→now)7.3% → 6.7% ▼
- Value$595.6MWeight (prev→now)6.0% → 4.4% ▼
- Value$544.1MWeight (prev→now)2.4% → 1.6% ▼
- Value$477.0MWeight (prev→now)17.7% → 18.4% ▲
Show all 43 holders ▸Collapse ▾
- Value$376.5MWeight (prev→now)4.9% → 4.7% ▼
- Value$368.1MWeight (prev→now)10.9% → 11.2% ▲
- Value$310.5MWeight (prev→now)3.1% → 2.8% ▼
- Value$281.3MWeight (prev→now)1.9% → 1.5% ▼
- Value$265.6MWeight (prev→now)1.8% → 1.1% ▼
- Value$234.3MWeight (prev→now)5.3% → 5.5% ▲
- Value$200.5MWeight (prev→now)1.7% → 1.5% ▼
- Value$131.5MWeight (prev→now)13.6% → 11.7% ▼
- Value$109.3MWeight (prev→now)0.8% → 1.1% ▲
- Value$107.1MWeight (prev→now)30.6% → 23.3% ▼
- Value$64.5MWeight (prev→now)5.8% → 5.2% ▼
- Value$57.1MWeight (prev→now)4.4% → 4.0% ▼
- Value$44.2MWeight (prev→now)3.4% → 3.3% ▼
- Value$34.7MWeight (prev→now)0.1% → 0.1% ▲
- Value$33.4MWeight (prev→now)5.7% → 6.9% ▲
- Value$25.7MWeight (prev→now)2.7% → 3.9% ▲
- Value$25.6MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▲
- Value$17.0MWeight (prev→now)New · 7.3%
- Value$12.3MWeight (prev→now)2.5% → 3.2% ▲
- Value$12.2MWeight (prev→now)3.2% → 3.5% ▲
- Value$10.4MWeight (prev→now)2.3% → 2.2% ▼
- Value$6.2MWeight (prev→now)1.0% → 1.3% ▲
- Value$3.8MWeight (prev→now)2.8% → 2.8% ▼
- Value$2.3MWeight (prev→now)0.1% → 0.1% ▲
- Value$1.6MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▲
- Value$1.3MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
- Value$774,395Weight (prev→now)0.1% → 0.1%
- Value$667,333Weight (prev→now)0.2% → 0.2% ▲
- Value$666,587Weight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
- Value$281,630Weight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
- Value$274,916Weight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
- Value$239,106Weight (prev→now)New · 0.0%
- Value$223,812Weight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Microsoft Corp (MSFT) is held by 43 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $17.67B in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Dodge & Cox, where it makes up 2.5% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Jeremy Grantham (5.7% of its book), Bill Ackman (15.3% of its book) and Ravenel Boykin Curry (4.2% of its book).
Over the latest quarter, 2 of the tracked filers opened a new position in MSFT, 17 added to existing ones, 18 trimmed, and 4 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Microsoft Corp (MSFT) also commonly hold →
- Amazon.Com IncAMZN28 holders
- Alphabet Inc-Cl CGOOG28 holders
- Alphabet Inc-Cl AGOOGL27 holders
- Meta Platforms Inc-Class AMETA27 holders
- Visa Inc-Class A SharesV24 holders
- Apple IncAAPL22 holders
MSFT's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-18
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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