Matador Resources Co
MTDRAbove valueExpectations · modestHeld by 2 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
As of 2025-12-31Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- +5.1%
- Net margin
- 20.8%
- ROE
- 13.4%
- FCF margin
- 7.4%
Valuation · value band
Above fair value
Zero-growth floor
$48
Central IV
$17
Optimistic top
$52
Matador Resources Co (MTDR): A conservative value band $48–$52 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $17. Today’s price sits above that band (price $57 as of 2026-10-22).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
Revenue growth 4% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 0 yr · discount 14.8% · Zero-growth downside $48
Price as of 2026-10-22 · yahoo · DGS10 5.1% @ 2026-10-21.
Method & numbers
Buybacks over the years shown roughly only offset stock-based-compensation dilution — read them as maintaining the share count, not a net return of capital.
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $13.45 – $19.37 · Greenwald zero-growth $51.88 · zero-growth base $51.88 · reproduction $47.75
Moat Commodity-like · terminal value 33% of present value · owner-earnings yield 3% vs 10Y 5.1%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$36.31 – $51.88 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (ok) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).
Buffett owner-earnings value$12.97 – $14.97 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 13.0–15.0% band (9–11% base + 4.0pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Net income is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized owner earnings anchored to the latest year — no peak-earnings capitalization (audit #2). Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (ok); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 4.0pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 17.3 years of owner earnings, adding 4.0pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $5.93B = $47.75 / sh. Total book value (shareholders' equity ÷ diluted shares); intangibles not separated — goodwill/intangibles unavailable this period.
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. Dual reproduction test unavailable (intangibles not separated). A directional reading, not a verdict.
Growth value gated to zero — no moat or ROIIC ≤ WACC, so no growth value is credited.
Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 18% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 17.3 years of owner earnings → +4.0pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 13.0%–15.0%.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 4% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 13.63%–16.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +4.00pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-10-21). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about 28.7% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 29.5% a year.
Below what it has already done.
Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 8 more years to hold up.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
2 holders · $8.6M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -0 exited
- Value$6.7MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▲
- Value$1.9MWeight (prev→now)0.1% → 0.1% ▲
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Matador Resources Co (MTDR) is held by 2 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $8.6M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Jeremy Grantham, where it makes up 0.0% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Tweedy, Browne (0.1% of its book).
In the quarter ended 2026-06-30, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in MTDR, 2 added to existing ones, 0 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Matador Resources Co (MTDR) also commonly hold →
- Alphabet Inc-Cl AGOOGL2 holders
- Johnson & JohnsonJNJ2 holders
- Unitedhealth Group IncUNH2 holders
- Us BancorpUSB2 holders
- The Cigna GroupCI2 holders
- Elevance Health IncELV2 holders
MTDR's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-13· Yahoo Finance as of 2026-10-22· SEC 10-K + 10-Q (XBRL) as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-07·FRED 10-year Treasury (DGS10) as of 2026-10-21
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
Stay Updated
One email after each quarter's 13F deadline: what the superinvestors did. Unsubscribe anytime.