Nabors Industries Ltd
NBRWithin bandExpectations · modestHeld by 1 superinvestor.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2025-12-31Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- +8.7%
- Net margin
- 9.0%
- ROE
- 48.5%
- FCF margin
- -0.7%
Valuation · value band
In fair-value range
Zero-growth floor
$54
Central IV
$60
Optimistic top
$322
Nabors Industries Ltd (NBR): A conservative value band $54–$322 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $60. Today’s price sits inside that band (price $87 as of 2026-08-26).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
Revenue growth 1% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 10 yr · discount 14.6% · Zero-growth downside $54
Price as of 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-26.
Method & numbers
Model cautions
- Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $52.03 – $66.44 · Greenwald zero-growth $322.28 · zero-growth base $322.28 · reproduction $46.58
Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 28% of present value · owner-earnings yield 9% vs 10Y 4.7%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$243.17 – $322.28 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 97% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$54.33 – $62.69 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 13.0–15.0% band (9–11% base + 4.0pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 97% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 4.0pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 13.8 years of owner earnings, adding 4.0pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $544.13M + capitalized R&D $120.77M（FY 2026, 2024, 2023, 2022） = $46.58 / sh. Total book value (equity ÷ diluted shares) + capitalized R&D; intangibles not separated — goodwill/intangibles unavailable this period.
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. Dual reproduction test unavailable (intangibles not separated). A directional reading, not a verdict.
Assumes a narrow moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 10 years.
Growth value not assessable — No positive growth reinvestment in the matured window, so ROIIC cannot be computed.
Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 0% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 13.8 years of owner earnings → +4.0pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 13.0%–15.0%.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 1% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 13.16%–16.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +4.00pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-08-26). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about 8.9% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 9.7% a year.
Below what it has already done.
Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 7 more years to hold up.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
1 holder · $37.4M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -0 exited
- Value$37.4MWeight (prev→now)10.0% → 8.8% ▼
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Nabors Industries Ltd (NBR) is held by 1 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $37.4M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Bill Miller, where it makes up 8.8% of the portfolio.
Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in NBR, 1 added to existing ones, 0 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Nabors Industries Ltd (NBR) also commonly hold →
- Gray Media IncGTN1 holder
- Dir Dai S&P 500 Bu 2x Etf-UsSPUU1 holder
- Bloomin' Brands IncBLMN1 holder
- Quad Graphics IncQUAD1 holder
- Lincoln National CorpLNC1 holder
- Crescent Energy Inc-ACRGY1 holder
NBR's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
Stay Updated
New-quarter 13F moves and valuation updates, to your inbox.