Northern Trust Corp
NTRSWithin bandExpectations · modestHeld by 3 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
As of 2025-12-31Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- +6.1%
- Net margin
- 34.6%
- ROE
- 13.4%
- FCF margin
- 108.8%
Valuation · value band
In fair-value range
Zero-growth floor
$116
Central IV
$165
Optimistic top
$194
Northern Trust Corp (NTRS): A conservative value band $116–$194 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $165. Today’s price sits inside that band (price $166 as of 2026-10-16).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
Revenue growth 4% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 10 yr · discount 10.8% · Zero-growth downside $116
Price as of 2026-10-16 · yahoo · DGS10 5.1% @ 2026-10-15.
Method & numbers
Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $116.24 – $194.46 · Greenwald zero-growth $141.62 · zero-growth base $141.62 · reproduction $68.65
Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 47% of present value · owner-earnings yield 8% vs 10Y 5.1%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)
Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.
Normalized NOPAT from operating margin — not applicable when operating income is not reported separately. Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge (+ cash − total debt) — not applied (lens not assessable).
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
Buffett owner-earnings value$115.87 – $141.62 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 1707% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied. Financial issuer (bank/insurer): net debt / owner earnings does not describe a deposit-funded balance sheet, so no leverage premium is applied here; leverage is instead handled by the reliability gate.
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $12.69B = $68.65 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Assumes a narrow moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 10 years.
Growth value not assessable — Operating income is not available across the window, so ROIIC / growth value cannot be computed.
Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 4% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.60%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-10-15). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about 3.6% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 4.0% a year.
Below what it has already done.
Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 16 more years to hold up.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
3 holders · $173.4M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -0 exited
- Value$169.0MWeight (prev→now)1.8% → 1.7% ▼
- Value$2.7MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▲
- Value$1.7MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▲
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Northern Trust Corp (NTRS) is held by 3 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $173.4M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to John Rogers, where it makes up 1.7% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Ray Dalio (0.0% of its book) and Donald Yacktman (0.0% of its book).
In the quarter ended 2026-06-30, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in NTRS, 1 added to existing ones, 1 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Northern Trust Corp (NTRS) also commonly hold →
- Johnson & JohnsonJNJ3 holders
- Schwab (Charles) CorpSCHW3 holders
- Walt Disney Co/TheDIS3 holders
- Masco CorpMAS3 holders
- Lockheed Martin CorpLMT3 holders
- Factset Research Systems IncFDS3 holders
NTRS's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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