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Old Dominion Freight Line

ODFLAbove valueExpectations · demanding

Held by 3 superinvestors.

Price$199.43
Holders3
Total value$120.0M

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

as of 2025-12-31

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

Revenue growth
-5.5%
Net margin
18.6%
ROE
23.7%
FCF margin
17.4%
Revenue $4.02B → $5.50B · 6y
What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

Above fair value

$48/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$199
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$43

Central IV

$48

Optimistic top

$59

Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL): Two methods value the business — a conservative owner-earnings DCF and a growth-credited Greenwald estimate, $43–$59 / sh. Today’s price sits above both (price $199 as of 2026-08-26).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

Revenue growth 1% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 20 yr · discount 10.6% · Zero-growth downside $43

Price as of 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-26.

Method & numbers

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $40.03 – $56.62 · Greenwald $59.03 – $59.03 (neutral $59.03) · zero-growth base $59.03 · reproduction $21.79

Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 16% of present value · owner-earnings yield 2% vs 10Y 4.7%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$48.53 – $59.03 / sh

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (ok) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).

Buffett owner-earnings value$42.53 – $51.98 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Net income is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized owner earnings anchored to the latest year — no peak-earnings capitalization (audit #2). Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (ok); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $4.55B = $21.79 / sh. Total book value (shareholders' equity ÷ diluted shares); intangibles not separated — goodwill/intangibles unavailable this period.

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. Dual reproduction test unavailable (intangibles not separated). A directional reading, not a verdict.

Assumes a wide moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 20 years (earnings intact, ROIC stable over history).

Growth value: if the moat holds for 20 yr at ROIIC ≈ 6%, $0.00–$0.00 / sh (neutral $0.00). Conservative, not a forecast.

Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 1% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.16%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-08-26). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. Two-method midpoint gap 20%.

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

What the price is betting

Today's price pencils in about 19.2% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 5.3% a year.

The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

3 holders · $120.0M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -2 exited

This quarter2 trimmed2 exited
Holders 5 → 3 · last 8q
Exited this quarter (2)
Wallace WeitzFrançois Rochon

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) is held by 3 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $120.0M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Thomas Gayner, where it makes up 0.7% of the portfolio.

Other notable holders by value include David Rolfe (4.9% of its book) and Jeremy Grantham (0.0% of its book).

Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in ODFL, 0 added to existing ones, 2 trimmed, and 2 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

Also held by these investors

Investors holding Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) also commonly hold →

ODFL's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks

Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

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