Occidental Petroleum Corp
OXYBelow valueExpectations · modestHeld by 4 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2025-12-31Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- -21.3%
- Net margin
- 11.0%
- ROE
- 6.6%
- FCF margin
- 19.0%
Valuation · value band
Margin of safety
Zero-growth floor
$56
Central IV
$80
Optimistic top
$98
Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY): A conservative value band $56–$98 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $80. Today’s price sits below that band (price $59 as of 2026-08-26).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
Revenue growth 3% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 10 yr · discount 10.6% · Zero-growth downside $56
Price as of 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-26.
Method & numbers
Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.
Model cautions
- Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $55.27 – $97.53 · Greenwald zero-growth $68.14 · zero-growth base $68.14 · reproduction $40.58
Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 47% of present value · owner-earnings yield 10% vs 10Y 4.7%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)
Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.
Normalized NOPAT from operating margin — not applicable when operating income is not reported separately. Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge (+ cash − total debt) — not applied (lens not assessable).
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
Buffett owner-earnings value$55.75 – $68.14 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 255% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $41.08B = $40.58 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Assumes a narrow moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 10 years.
Growth value not assessable — Operating income is not available across the window, so ROIIC / growth value cannot be computed.
Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 3% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.16%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-08-26). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about -2.5% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 3.1% a year.
Below what it has already done.
Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 1 more years to hold up.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
4 holders · $16.92B combined · this quarter +0 opened / -1 exited
- Value$12.87BWeight (prev→now)6.5% → 4.3% ▼
- Value$3.53BWeight (prev→now)2.6% → 1.9% ▼
- Value$498.4MWeight (prev→now)3.3% → 2.6% ▼
- Value$15.2MWeight (prev→now)9.7% → 7.0% ▼
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY) is held by 4 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $16.92B in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Warren Buffett, where it makes up 4.3% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Dodge & Cox (1.9% of its book), Duan Yongping (2.6% of its book) and Francis Chou (7.0% of its book).
Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in OXY, 0 added to existing ones, 1 trimmed, and 1 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY) also commonly hold →
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- Berkshire Hathaway Inc-Cl BBRK.B3 holders
- Alibaba Group Holding-Sp AdrBABA3 holders
OXY's price is below its conservative value band. Browse all undervalued stocks by margin of safety
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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