Procter & Gamble Co/The
PGAbove valueExpectations · demandingHeld by 10 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2026-06-30- Revenue growth
- +3.3%
- Net margin
- 18.4%
- ROE
- 29.5%
- FCF margin
- 17.4%
Valuation · value band
Above fair value
Zero-growth floor
$51
Central IV
$69
Optimistic top
$86
Procter & Gamble Co/The (PG): Two methods value the business — a conservative owner-earnings DCF and a growth-credited Greenwald estimate, $51–$86 / sh. Today’s price sits above both (price $145 as of 2026-08-26).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
Revenue growth 1% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 10 yr · discount 10.6% · Zero-growth downside $51
Price as of 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-26.
Method & numbers
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $54.73 – $81.30 · Greenwald $74.85 – $85.66 (neutral $79.90) · zero-growth base $70.34 · reproduction $12.03
Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 41% of present value · owner-earnings yield 4% vs 10Y 4.7%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$51.42 – $64.62 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (ok) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$57.55 – $70.34 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (ok); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $-8.41B + capitalized R&D $6.18B(FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021) = $12.03 / sh. Reproduction value = intangible-inclusive net reproduction (tangible net assets + acquired-intangible reset proxy + capitalized R&D), ÷ diluted shares; tangible net assets alone are negative for this asset-light franchise.
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Assumes a narrow moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 10 years.
Growth value: if the moat holds for 10 yr at ROIIC ≈ 37%, $4.51–$15.31 / sh (neutral $9.56). Conservative, not a forecast.
Window FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 20% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 1% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.16%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-08-26). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. Two-method midpoint gap 15%.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about 15.6% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 2.4% a year.
The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
10 holders · $1.08B combined · this quarter +0 opened / -0 exited
- Value$598.1MWeight (prev→now)4.7% → 4.4% ▼
- Value$287.9MWeight (prev→now)3.7% → 3.6% ▼
- Value$137.3MWeight (prev→now)0.3% → 0.3% ▼
- Value$21.5MWeight (prev→now)0.7% → 1.7% ▲
- Value$20.2MWeight (prev→now)0.1% → 0.1% ▼
- Value$13.3MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
- Value$961,079Weight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
- Value$487,285Weight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
- Value$267,502Weight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0%
- Value$219,080Weight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▲
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Procter & Gamble Co/The (PG) is held by 10 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $1.08B in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Terry Smith, where it makes up 4.4% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Donald Yacktman (3.6% of its book), Jeremy Grantham (0.3% of its book) and David Katz (1.7% of its book).
Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in PG, 3 added to existing ones, 5 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Procter & Gamble Co/The (PG) also commonly hold →
- Microsoft CorpMSFT10 holders
- Comcast Corp-Class ACMCSA9 holders
- Pepsico IncPEP9 holders
- Alphabet Inc-Cl AGOOGL8 holders
- Alphabet Inc-Cl CGOOG8 holders
- Visa Inc-Class A SharesV8 holders
PG's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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