Prologis Inc
PLDAbove valueExpectations · demandingHeld by 2 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
As of 2025-12-31Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- +7.2%
- Net margin
- 37.9%
- ROE
- 6.3%
- FCF margin
- —
Valuation · value band
Above fair value
Zero-growth floor
$55
Central IV
$29
Optimistic top
$55
Prologis Inc (PLD): A conservative value band $55 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $29. Today’s price sits above that band (price $127 as of 2026-10-22).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
Revenue growth 0% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 0 yr · discount 13.8% · Zero-growth downside $55
Price as of 2026-10-22 · yahoo · DGS10 5.1% @ 2026-10-21.
Method & numbers
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $27.09 – $32.19 · Greenwald zero-growth $54.53 · zero-growth base $54.53 · reproduction $54.53
Moat Below asset base · terminal value 28% of present value · owner-earnings yield 3% vs 10Y 5.1%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$9.12 – $19.19 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex unavailable → degraded to the v1 simplification (maintenance capex = D&A, so the depreciation add-back nets to zero). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).
Buffett owner-earnings value$29.03 – $33.88 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 12.0–14.0% band (9–11% base + 3.0pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex or D&A unavailable → degraded to normalized net income (= average net income over the years shown). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 3.0pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 8.9 years of owner earnings, adding 3.0pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $52.23B = $54.53 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Growth value gated to zero — no moat or ROIIC ≤ WACC, so no growth value is credited.
Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 5% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 8.9 years of owner earnings → +3.0pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 12.0%–14.0%.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 0% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 12.59%–14.96% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +2.96pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-10-21). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about over 30.0% (outside the usual range) a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 16.5% a year.
The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.
Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 17 more years to hold up.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
2 holders · $24.6M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -1 exited
- Value$24.2MWeight (prev→now)0.1% → 0.1% ▼
- Value$395,572Weight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Prologis Inc (PLD) is held by 2 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $24.6M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Christopher Davis, where it makes up 0.1% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Jim Cullen (0.0% of its book).
In the quarter ended 2026-06-30, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in PLD, 0 added to existing ones, 1 trimmed, and 1 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Prologis Inc (PLD) also commonly hold →
- Cvs Health CorpCVS2 holders
- Alphabet Inc-Cl AGOOGL2 holders
- Devon Energy CorpDVN2 holders
- Unitedhealth Group IncUNH2 holders
- The Cigna GroupCI2 holders
- Chubb LtdCB2 holders
PLD's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14· Yahoo Finance as of 2026-10-22· SEC 10-K + 10-Q (XBRL) as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-07-29·FRED 10-year Treasury (DGS10) as of 2026-10-21
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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