Paypal Holdings Inc
PYPLBelow valueExpectations · modestHeld by 10 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
As of 2025-12-31Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- +4.3%
- Net margin
- 15.8%
- ROE
- 25.8%
- FCF margin
- 16.8%
Valuation · value band
Margin of safety
Zero-growth floor
$46
Central IV
$67
Optimistic top
$112
Paypal Holdings Inc (PYPL): Two methods value the business — a conservative owner-earnings DCF and a growth-credited Greenwald estimate, $46–$112 / sh. Today’s price sits below both (price $57 as of 2026-10-16).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
Revenue growth 3% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 20 yr · discount 10.8% · Zero-growth downside $46
Price as of 2026-10-16 · yahoo · DGS10 5.1% @ 2026-10-15.
Method & numbers
Model cautions
- Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).
- The two methods’ midpoints differ materially — growth assumptions warrant review (over 20%).
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $48.41 – $77.71 · Greenwald $68.99 – $112.07 (neutral $90.23) · zero-growth base $59.39 · reproduction $9.88
Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 20% of present value · owner-earnings yield 9% vs 10Y 5.1%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$46.13 – $57.67 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 103% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$48.59 – $59.39 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 103% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $8.71B = $9.88 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Assumes a wide moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 20 years (earnings intact, ROIC stable over history).
Growth value: if the moat holds for 20 yr at ROIIC ≈ 29%, $9.60–$52.68 / sh (neutral $30.85). Conservative, not a forecast.
Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 13% (Average effective tax rate over 2 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 3% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.60%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-10-15). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. Two-method midpoint gap 30%.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about 1.1% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 8.7% a year.
Below what it has already done.
Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 2 more years to hold up.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
10 holders · $482.9M combined · this quarter +1 opened / -0 exited
- Value$136.6MWeight (prev→now)6.0% → 5.2% ▼
- Value$100.1MWeight (prev→now)1.4% → 1.2% ▼
- Value$92.3MWeight (prev→now)0.9% → 1.1% ▲
- Value$61.5MWeight (prev→now)New · 1.6%
- Value$36.2MWeight (prev→now)0.1% → 0.1% ▼
- Value$27.2MWeight (prev→now)10.5% → 10.6% ▲
- Value$13.7MWeight (prev→now)0.9% → 1.1% ▲
- Value$7.2MWeight (prev→now)3.6% → 3.3% ▼
- Value$7.2MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▲
- Value$969,952Weight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.1% ▲
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Paypal Holdings Inc (PYPL) is held by 10 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $482.9M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Nick Train, where it makes up 5.2% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Donald Yacktman (1.2% of its book), Steven Romick (1.1% of its book) and David Einhorn (1.6% of its book).
In the quarter ended 2026-06-30, 1 of the tracked filers opened a new position in PYPL, 3 added to existing ones, 2 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. 1 investor has already filed for the quarter ended 2026-09-30. Their positions in the table reflect those newer filings, and the move counts on this page cover only 2026-06-30 filings. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Paypal Holdings Inc (PYPL) also commonly hold →
- Alphabet Inc-Cl CGOOG6 holders
- Comcast Corp-Class ACMCSA6 holders
- Wells Fargo & CoWFC6 holders
- Alphabet Inc-Cl AGOOGL5 holders
- Thermo Fisher Scientific IncTMO5 holders
- Visa Inc-Class A SharesV5 holders
PYPL's price is below its conservative value band. Browse all undervalued stocks by margin of safety
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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