Paypal Holdings Inc
PYPLBelow valueExpectations · modestHeld by 9 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2025-12-31Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-03-31 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- +4.3%
- Net margin
- 15.8%
- ROE
- 25.8%
- FCF margin
- 16.8%
Valuation · value band
Margin of safety
Zero-growth floor
$47
Central IV
$67
Optimistic top
$111
Paypal Holdings Inc (PYPL): Two methods value the business — a conservative owner-earnings DCF and a growth-credited Greenwald estimate, $47–$111 / sh. Today’s price sits below both (price $62 as of 2026-08-26).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
Revenue growth 4% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 20 yr · discount 10.6% · Zero-growth downside $47
Price as of 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-26.
Method & numbers
Model cautions
- Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).
- The two methods’ midpoints differ materially — growth assumptions warrant review (over 20%).
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $46.78 – $81.28 · Greenwald $67.57 – $111.10 (neutral $89.15) · zero-growth base $57.52 · reproduction $9.64
Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 21% of present value · owner-earnings yield 8% vs 10Y 4.7%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$46.58 – $57.52 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: TTM 2026-03-31, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 100% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$46.64 – $57.01 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-03-31, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 100% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $8.87B = $9.64 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Assumes a wide moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 20 years (earnings intact, ROIC stable over history).
Growth value: if the moat holds for 20 yr at ROIIC ≈ 30%, $10.05–$53.58 / sh (neutral $31.63). Conservative, not a forecast.
Window TTM 2026-03-31, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 13% (Average effective tax rate over 2 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 4% · OE FY TTM 2026-03-31, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.16%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-08-26). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. Two-method midpoint gap 28%.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-03-31 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about 2.5% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 8.7% a year.
Below what it has already done.
Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 4 more years to hold up.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
9 holders · $453.3M combined · this quarter +1 opened / -2 exited
- Value$136.6MWeight (prev→now)6.0% → 5.2% ▼
- Value$100.1MWeight (prev→now)1.4% → 1.2% ▼
- Value$92.3MWeight (prev→now)0.9% → 1.1% ▲
- Value$61.5MWeight (prev→now)New · 1.6%
- Value$36.2MWeight (prev→now)0.1% → 0.1% ▼
- Value$11.3MWeight (prev→now)1.1% → 0.9% ▼
- Value$7.2MWeight (prev→now)3.6% → 3.3% ▼
- Value$7.2MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▲
- Value$969,952Weight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.1% ▲
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Paypal Holdings Inc (PYPL) is held by 9 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $453.3M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Nick Train, where it makes up 5.2% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Donald Yacktman (1.2% of its book), Steven Romick (1.1% of its book) and David Einhorn (1.6% of its book).
Over the latest quarter, 1 of the tracked filers opened a new position in PYPL, 3 added to existing ones, 3 trimmed, and 2 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Paypal Holdings Inc (PYPL) also commonly hold →
- Alphabet Inc-Cl CGOOG6 holders
- Comcast Corp-Class ACMCSA6 holders
- Wells Fargo & CoWFC6 holders
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- Thermo Fisher Scientific IncTMO5 holders
- Visa Inc-Class A SharesV5 holders
PYPL's price is below its conservative value band. Browse all undervalued stocks by margin of safety
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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