Paypal Holdings Inc
Held by 8 superinvestors (PYPL).
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
Valuation
Valuation · two methods
Earnings Power & Asset Floor
Two intrinsic-value methods and a tangible asset floor — deterministic, not price forecasts or recommendations.
Paypal Holdings Inc (PYPL): Two methods value the business — a conservative owner-earnings DCF and a growth-credited Greenwald estimate, $44–$93 / sh. Today’s price sits inside both (price $45 as of 2026-07-02).
Model cautions
- Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).
- The two methods’ midpoints differ materially — growth assumptions warrant review (over 20%).
An observation from two valuation methods — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Price as of 2026-07-02 · yahoo · DGS10 4.4% @ 2026-06-25.
Method & numbers
Owner-earnings DCF $43.83 – $70.01 · Greenwald $65.54 – $92.67 (neutral $78.18) · zero-growth base $54.71 · reproduction $9.49
Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 41% of present value · owner-earnings yield 10% vs 10Y 4.4%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$44.40 – $54.71 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 101% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$41.24 – $50.40 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the same 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy (theoretically the cost of equity is higher; v2 simplification, v3 to refine).
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $9.18B = $9.49 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Growth value: if the moat holds for 10 yr at ROIIC ≈ 34%, $10.83–$37.96 / sh (neutral $23.46). Conservative, not a forecast.
Window FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 13% (Average effective tax rate over 2 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 6% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 8.90%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-06-25). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. Two-method midpoint gap 28%.
Ownership · 13F consensus
Who's buying it
Institutional ownership aggregated across funds — consensus strength and this quarter's moves. Describes actions, not advice.
8 superinvestors hold it · $405.1M combined
Largest holder Nick Train
Held by 8 superinvestors of Paypal Holdings Inc (PYPL); this quarter 2 opened, 1 added, 4 trimmed, 3 exited (as of 2026-03-31).
13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days. Informational only — not investment advice.
Next · is it cheap
PYPL's price is not below its conservative value band.
See which stocks are in the strike zone right nowSuperinvestors Holding This Security
- Value$189.0MWeight (prev→now)6.4% → 6.0% ▼
- Value$103.6MWeight (prev→now)New · 1.4%
- Value$62.9MWeight (prev→now)New · 0.9%
- Value$28.4MWeight (prev→now)12.2% → 10.5%
- Value$12.1MWeight (prev→now)1.4% → 1.1% ▼
- Value$7.6MWeight (prev→now)1.2% → 3.6% ▲
- Value$1.0MWeight (prev→now)1.4% → 0.0% ▼
- Value$444,159Weight (prev→now)0.7% → 0.0% ▼
Ownership overview
Paypal Holdings Inc (PYPL) is held by 8 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $405.1M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Nick Train, where it makes up 6.0% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Donald Yacktman (1.4% of its book), Steven Romick (0.9% of its book) and Norbert Lou (10.5% of its book).
Over the latest quarter, 2 of the tracked filers opened a new position in PYPL, 1 added to existing ones, 4 trimmed, and 3 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-03-31. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
Holders over time
Superinvestors holding this security over the last 8 quarters: 10 → 8.
Early quarters may understate holder counts due to data backfill — read the slope with care.
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-03-31 · filed 2026-05-15
Stay Updated
Curated 13F moves and valuation insights, straight to your inbox.