Sps Commerce Inc
SPSCAbove valueExpectations · modestHeld by 2 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2025-12-31Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- +17.8%
- Net margin
- 12.4%
- ROE
- 9.6%
- FCF margin
- 20.3%
Valuation · value band
Above fair value
Zero-growth floor
$17
Central IV
$48
Optimistic top
$66
Sps Commerce Inc (SPSC): Two methods value the business — a conservative owner-earnings DCF and a growth-credited Greenwald estimate, $17–$66 / sh. Today’s price sits above both (price $81 as of 2026-08-25).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
Revenue growth 12% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 20 yr · discount 10.6% · Zero-growth downside $17
Price as of 2026-08-25 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-24.
Method & numbers
Model cautions
- Growth nearly matches the discount rate — the estimate is sensitive to assumptions.
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $21.63 – $60.43 · Greenwald $38.28 – $65.58 (neutral $52.70) · zero-growth base $29.28 · reproduction $9.95
Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 28% of present value · owner-earnings yield 2% vs 10Y 4.7%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$24.82 – $29.28 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 92% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).
Buffett owner-earnings value$17.49 – $21.38 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 92% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $226.63M + capitalized R&D $137.14M（FY 2026, 2024, 2023, 2022） = $9.95 / sh. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Assumes a wide moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 20 years (earnings intact, ROIC stable over history).
Growth value: if the moat holds for 20 yr at ROIIC ≈ 79%, $9.00–$36.30 / sh (neutral $23.42). Conservative, not a forecast.
Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 12% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.20%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-08-24). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. Two-method midpoint gap 9%.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about 18.1% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 18.9% a year.
Below what it has already done.
Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 12 more years to hold up.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
2 holders · $123.3M combined · this quarter +1 opened / -0 exited
- Value$121.4MWeight (prev→now)0.9% → 2.1% ▲
- Value$1.9MWeight (prev→now)New · 0.0%
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Sps Commerce Inc (SPSC) is held by 2 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $123.3M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Fred Martin, where it makes up 2.1% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Ray Dalio (0.0% of its book).
Over the latest quarter, 1 of the tracked filers opened a new position in SPSC, 1 added to existing ones, 0 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Sps Commerce Inc (SPSC) also commonly hold →
- Viasat IncVSAT2 holders
- Everpure Inc-AP2 holders
- Arista Networks IncANET2 holders
- Cognex CorpCGNX2 holders
- Expand Energy CorpEXE2 holders
- Devon Energy CorpDVN2 holders
SPSC's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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