Tesla Inc
TSLAAbove valueHeld by 6 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2025-12-31Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- -2.9%
- Net margin
- 4.0%
- ROE
- 4.6%
- FCF margin
- 6.6%
Valuation · value band
Above fair value
$28 value estimate
Tesla Inc (TSLA): A conservative earnings-power estimate, $28 / sh; today’s price sits above it (price $346 as of 2026-08-26).
Zero-growth downside $28
Price as of 2026-08-26 · yahoo.
Method & numbers
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
· Greenwald zero-growth $28.00 · zero-growth base $28.00 · reproduction $28.00
Moat Below asset base.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$5.89 – $6.73 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 67% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).
Buffett owner-earnings value
Normalized owner earnings are non-positive over the years shown; earnings power cannot be capitalized.
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Net income is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized owner earnings anchored to the latest year — no peak-earnings capitalization (audit #2). Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 67% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied. Net debt or owner earnings is unavailable, so no adjustment is made.
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $86.48B + capitalized R&D $12.66B（FY 2026, 2024, 2023, 2022） = $28.00 / sh. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Growth value gated to zero — no moat or ROIIC ≤ WACC, so no growth value is credited.
Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 3% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
How to read intrinsic valueSEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
6 holders · $1.68B combined · this quarter +1 opened / -2 exited
- Value$1.42BWeight (prev→now)6.3% → 7.4% ▲
- Value$230.4MWeight (prev→now)2.6% → 0.7% ▼
- Value$19.9MWeight (prev→now)5.9% → 5.5% ▼
- Value$3.8MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▲
- Value$432,377Weight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▲
- Value$207,978Weight (prev→now)New · 0.0%
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Tesla Inc (TSLA) is held by 6 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $1.68B in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Duan Yongping, where it makes up 7.4% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Andreas Halvorsen (0.7% of its book), Josh Tarasoff (5.5% of its book) and Polen Capital (0.0% of its book).
Over the latest quarter, 1 of the tracked filers opened a new position in TSLA, 2 added to existing ones, 3 trimmed, and 2 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Tesla Inc (TSLA) also commonly hold →
- Microsoft CorpMSFT5 holders
- Amazon.Com IncAMZN5 holders
- Apple IncAAPL4 holders
- Visa Inc-Class A SharesV4 holders
- Meta Platforms Inc-Class AMETA4 holders
- Nvidia CorpNVDA4 holders
TSLA's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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