Compounder

Murphy Oil Corp

1 位超级投资者持有 Murphy Oil Corp(MUR)。

仅供教育与信息参考,不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报,可能滞后最多 45 天。

本季动向1 家新进

估值 · 地基层

Earnings Power & Asset Floor
Two intrinsic-value methods and a tangible asset floor — deterministic, not price forecasts or recommendations.
Margin of safetyPrice sits below this method' value estimate.
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$35
cheaper$29$47 value estimatepricier

Murphy Oil Corp (MUR): A conservative earnings-power estimate, $29–$47 / sh; today’s price sits below it (price $35 as of 2026-06-25).

Price is at or below the reproducible tangible asset base ($36 / sh) — a rarer, harder floor.

Model cautions

  • Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).

An observation from two valuation methods — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Price as of 2026-06-25 · yahoo · DGS10 4.4% @ 2026-06-24.

Method & numbers

Owner-earnings DCF $28.67 – $41.49 · Greenwald zero-growth $46.69 · zero-growth base $46.69 · reproduction $35.54

Moat Commodity-like · terminal value 44% of present value · owner-earnings yield 8% vs 10Y 4.4%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$37.88 – $46.69 / sh

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 8–10% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex unavailable → degraded to the v1 simplification (maintenance capex = D&A, so the depreciation add-back nets to zero). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).

Buffett owner-earnings value$28.67 – $35.83 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 8–10% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex or D&A unavailable → degraded to normalized net income (= average net income over the years shown). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the same 8–10% band as a cost-of-equity proxy (theoretically the cost of equity is higher; v2 simplification, v3 to refine).

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $5.12B = $35.54 / sh. Total book value (shareholders' equity ÷ diluted shares); intangibles not separated — goodwill/intangibles unavailable this period.

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

Growth value gated to zero — no moat / ROIIC ≤ WACC, so no growth value is credited.

Window FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 8%10% · normalized tax 13% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 0% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 6.91%–10.00% (DGS10 +2.5% to a 10% strict end, as of 2026-06-24). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.

持有该证券的超级投资者

  • 市值$819,555权重(上季→本季)新建 · 0.0%

持有概览

Murphy Oil Corp(MUR)被 Compounder 追踪的 1 位超级投资者持有,合计申报市值 $819,555。仓位最大的是 Ray Dalio,占其组合 0.0%。

最近一个季度,追踪范围内有 1 位新建 MUR 仓位,0 位加仓,0 位减仓,0 位清仓。

以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报,截至 2026-03-31 季度。来源:SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓,且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天,因此这是已披露的多头持有情况,并非完整全貌。

关键事实与外部链接

代码
MUR
合计市值
$819,555
最大持有人
Ray Dalio
外部数据

数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-05-15

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