Policy Expectations
ManualMarket-implied policy rate expectations — reflecting investors' pricing of the Fed's next moves
SME Release Date2026-04-15
Latest Fed Funds Median3.63%
Year-end 2026 Fed Funds Median3.38%
U.S. Recession Now9.0%
U.S. Recession in 6 Months25.0%
Key Metrics
2026-04-15
3.63%
3.38%
9.0%
25.0%
2.90%
Interpretation
The SME median path summarizes survey-based expectations for the fed funds path, inflation, recession risk, and balance sheet assumptions.
Why It Matters
Survey-based policy expectations help show whether market economists expect easing, steady policy, or a firmer policy path.
Warnings
- SME sheet names: Sheet1
Data Tables
Fed Funds Path Expectations
| Horizon | Median | 25th Percentile | 75th Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.63% | 3.63% | 3.63% |
| 2027 | 3.25% | 3.13% | 3.38% |
| 2028 | 3.13% | 2.88% | 3.38% |
| 2029 | 3.13% | 2.88% | 3.38% |
| 2030 | 3.13% | 2.88% | 3.38% |
Balance Sheet and SOMA Expectations
| Item | Latest Period | Median Expectation |
|---|---|---|
| Total Fed assets | April 2026 | $6.73 trillion |
| SOMA assets | Mid-May to mid-Jun. 2026 | $22 billion |
| Treasury holdings | April 2026 | $4.40 trillion |
| Agency MBS holdings | April 2026 | $1.99 trillion |
| Reserve balances | 2026 Q2 | $3.02 trillion |
| ON RRP | 2026 Q2 | $3 billion |
Recession Probabilities
| Measure | Median Probability | 75th Percentile |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. recession now | 9.0% | 14.0% |
| U.S. recession in 6 months | 25.0% | 30.0% |
| Global recession in 6 months | 30.0% | 35.0% |
Core PCE Inflation Expectations
| Horizon | Median |
|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.90% |
| 2027 | 2.30% |
| 2028 | 2.10% |
Headline PCE Inflation Expectations
| Horizon | Median |
|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.20% |
| 2027 | 2.20% |
| 2028 | 2.00% |
| Longer run | 2.00% |
Sources·NY Fed / Treasury.gov as of 2026-04-15