政策预期
Manual市场隐含的政策利率预期——反映投资者对美联储下一步行动的定价
SME 发布时间2026-04-15
最新联邦基金利率中位数3.63%
2026年底联邦基金利率中位数3.38%
当前美国衰退概率9.0%
6个月美国衰退概率25.0%
核心指标
2026-04-15
3.63%
3.38%
9.0%
25.0%
2.90%
解读
SME 用于观察 market participants 对 Fed funds path、inflation、recession risk 和 balance sheet 的调查型预期。
为什么重要
政策预期可以帮助判断市场是否预期降息、按兵不动，或更偏紧的政策路径。
提示
- SME sheet names: Sheet1
数据表
Fed Funds Path Expectations
| Horizon | Median | 25th percentile | 75th percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.63% | 3.63% | 3.63% |
| 2027 | 3.25% | 3.13% | 3.38% |
| 2028 | 3.13% | 2.88% | 3.38% |
| 2029 | 3.13% | 2.88% | 3.38% |
| 2030 | 3.13% | 2.88% | 3.38% |
Balance Sheet and SOMA Expectations
| Item | Latest period | Median expectation |
|---|---|---|
| Total Fed assets | April 2026 | $6.73 trillion |
| SOMA assets | Mid-May to mid-Jun. 2026 | $22 billion |
| Treasury holdings | April 2026 | $4.40 trillion |
| Agency MBS holdings | April 2026 | $1.99 trillion |
| Reserve balances | 2026 Q2 | $3.02 trillion |
| ON RRP | 2026 Q2 | $3 billion |
Recession Probabilities
| Measure | Median probability | 75th percentile |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. recession now | 9.0% | 14.0% |
| U.S. recession in 6 months | 25.0% | 30.0% |
| Global recession in 6 months | 30.0% | 35.0% |
Core PCE Inflation Expectations
| Horizon | Median |
|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.90% |
| 2027 | 2.30% |
| 2028 | 2.10% |
Headline PCE Inflation Expectations
| Horizon | Median |
|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.20% |
| 2027 | 2.20% |
| 2028 | 2.00% |
| Longer run | 2.00% |
数据来源·NY Fed / Treasury.gov 截至 2026-04-15