Compounder

Excelerate Energy Inc-A

Held by 1 superinvestor (EE).

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

This quarter1 opened

Valuation

Earnings Power & Asset Floor
Two intrinsic-value methods and a tangible asset floor — deterministic, not price forecasts or recommendations.
Margin of safetyPrice sits below this method' value estimate.
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$38
cheaper$46 – $83 value estimatepricier

Excelerate Energy Inc-A (EE): A conservative earnings-power estimate, $46–$83 / sh; today’s price sits below it (price $38 as of 2026-06-26).

Price is at or below the reproducible tangible asset base ($53 / sh) — a rarer, harder floor.

Model cautions

  • Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).
  • The DCF result diverges from a zero-growth sanity check (over 50%).
  • Growth nearly matches the discount rate — the estimate is sensitive to assumptions.

An observation from two valuation methods — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Price as of 2026-06-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.4% @ 2026-06-25.

Method & numbers

Owner-earnings DCF $46.16 – $82.98 · Greenwald zero-growth $53.39 · zero-growth base $53.39 · reproduction $53.39

Moat Commodity-like · terminal value 43% of present value · owner-earnings yield 11% vs 10Y 4.4%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$40.70 – $52.64 / sh

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex unavailable → degraded to the v1 simplification (maintenance capex = D&A, so the depreciation add-back nets to zero). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).

Buffett owner-earnings value$39.10 – $47.79 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex or D&A unavailable → degraded to normalized net income (= average net income over the years shown). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the same 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy (theoretically the cost of equity is higher; v2 simplification, v3 to refine).

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $1.63B = $53.39 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

Growth value gated to zero — no moat / ROIIC ≤ WACC, so no growth value is credited.

Window FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 19% (Average effective tax rate over 4 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 10% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022 · Discount band: 8.90%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-06-25). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.

Superinvestors Holding This Security

  • Ray Dalio
    Value$1.3MWeight (prev→now)New · 0.0%

Ownership overview

Excelerate Energy Inc-A (EE) is held by 1 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $1.3M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Ray Dalio, where it makes up 0.0% of the portfolio.

Over the latest quarter, 1 of the tracked filers opened a new position in EE, 0 added to existing ones, 0 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-03-31. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

Key facts & links

Ticker
EE
Total value held
$1.3M
Largest holder
Ray Dalio
External

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-05-15

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