Compounder

Qfin Holdings Inc-Adr

Held by 1 superinvestor (QFIN).

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

This quarter1 trimmed

Valuation

Earnings Power & Asset Floor
Two intrinsic-value methods and a tangible asset floor — deterministic, not price forecasts or recommendations.
Margin of safetyPrice sits below both methods' value estimate.
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$16
cheaper$23 – $34 value estimatepricier

Qfin Holdings Inc-Adr (QFIN): Two methods value the business — a conservative owner-earnings DCF and a growth-credited Greenwald estimate, $23–$34 / sh. Today’s price sits below both (price $16 as of 2026-06-26).

Capex is in a steep ramp (heavy build-ahead investment) — owner earnings carry extra uncertainty, so read the value range with that caveat.

Model cautions

  • Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).
  • The two methods' midpoints differ materially — growth assumptions warrant review (over 20%).

An observation from two valuation methods — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Price as of 2026-06-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.4% @ 2026-06-25.

Method & numbers

Owner-earnings DCF $23.27 – $31.38 · Greenwald $34.25 – $34.25 (neutral $34.25) · zero-growth base $34.25 · reproduction $12.64

Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 37% of present value · owner-earnings yield 18% vs 10Y 4.4%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$28.47 – $34.25 / sh

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): maintenance capex floored at 50% of current capex; EPV is correspondingly pressed down. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 202% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): flagged; the spike is treated as growth, not maintenance — owner earnings carry extra uncertainty. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).

Buffett owner-earnings value$25.39 – $31.03 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): maintenance capex floored at 50% of current capex. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the same 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy (theoretically the cost of equity is higher; v2 simplification, v3 to refine).

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $3.44B = $12.64 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

Growth value: if the moat holds for 10 yr at ROIIC ≈ -13%, $0.00–$0.00 / sh (neutral $0.00). Conservative, not a forecast.

Window FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 18% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 0% (history declining → capped at 0) · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 8.90%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-06-25). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. Two-method midpoint gap 25%.

Superinvestors Holding This Security

Ownership overview

Qfin Holdings Inc-Adr (QFIN) is held by 1 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $4.3M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Sarah Ketterer, where it makes up 0.1% of the portfolio.

Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in QFIN, 0 added to existing ones, 1 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-03-31. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

Holders over time

Superinvestors holding this security over the last 8 quarters: 2 → 1.

Early quarters may understate holder counts due to data backfill — read the slope with care.

Key facts & links

Ticker
QFIN
Total value held
$4.3M
Largest holder
Sarah Ketterer
External

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-05-14

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