Qfin Holdings Inc-Adr
1 位超级投资者持有 Qfin Holdings Inc-Adr（QFIN）。
仅供教育与信息参考，不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报，可能滞后最多 45 天。
估值 · 地基层
Qfin Holdings Inc-Adr (QFIN): Two methods value the business — a conservative owner-earnings DCF and a growth-credited Greenwald estimate, $28–$40 / sh. Today’s price sits below both (price $15 as of 2026-06-25).
Capex is in a steep ramp (heavy build-ahead investment) — owner earnings carry extra uncertainty, so read the value range with that caveat.
Model cautions
- ·Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).
An observation from two valuation methods — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Price as of 2026-06-25 · yahoo · DGS10 4.4% @ 2026-06-24.
Method & numbers
Owner-earnings DCF $27.93 – $40.41 · Greenwald $38.71 – $38.71 (neutral $38.71) · zero-growth base $38.71 · reproduction $12.64
Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 44% of present value · owner-earnings yield 19% vs 10Y 4.4%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$31.46 – $38.71 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 8–10% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): maintenance capex floored at 50% of current capex; EPV is correspondingly pressed down. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 202% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): flagged; the spike is treated as growth, not maintenance — owner earnings carry extra uncertainty. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$27.93 – $34.91 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 8–10% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): maintenance capex floored at 50% of current capex. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the same 8–10% band as a cost-of-equity proxy (theoretically the cost of equity is higher; v2 simplification, v3 to refine).
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $3.44B = $12.64 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Growth value: if the moat holds for 10 yr at ROIIC ≈ -13%, $0.00–$0.00 / sh (neutral $0.00). Conservative, not a forecast.
Window FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 8%–10% · normalized tax 18% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 0% (history declining → capped at 0) · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 6.91%–10.00% (DGS10 +2.5% to a 10% strict end, as of 2026-06-24). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. Two-method midpoint gap 16%.
持有该证券的超级投资者
| 投资人 | 市值 | 持股 | 权重(上季→本季) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Ketterer | $4.3M | 330,288 | 0.3% → 0.1% ▼ |
- 市值$4.3M权重(上季→本季)0.3% → 0.1% ▼
持有概览
›
Qfin Holdings Inc-Adr（QFIN）被 Compounder 追踪的 1 位超级投资者持有，合计申报市值 $4.3M。仓位最大的是 Sarah Ketterer，占其组合 0.1%。
最近一个季度，追踪范围内有 0 位新建 QFIN 仓位，0 位加仓，1 位减仓，0 位清仓。
以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报，截至 2026-03-31 季度。来源：SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓，且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天，因此这是已披露的多头持有情况，并非完整全貌。
持有人趋势
›
近 8 季持有该证券的超级投资者：2 → 1 家。
早期季度持有人数可能因数据回填偏低，斜率仅供参考。
数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-05-14
相关页面
订阅更新
每期精选 13F 异动与估值洞察,直达你的邮箱。