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Policy Expectations

Manual

Market-implied policy rate expectations — reflecting investors' pricing of the Fed's next moves

Module/Policy
SME Release Date2026-04-15
Latest Fed Funds Median3.63%
Year-end 2026 Fed Funds Median3.38%
U.S. Recession Now9.0%
U.S. Recession in 6 Months25.0%
What To Watch
  • Whether the fed funds median path implies slower easing.
  • Whether recession probability and Core PCE expectations rise together.
What Can Mislead
  • SME is survey-based and lower frequency; it is not live market pricing.
Data Lineage

Currently sourced from a manual SME file; a supporting signal for policy path and macro expectations.

Sources: Manual SME file / NY Fed Survey of Market Participants context

Interpretation

The SME median path summarizes survey-based expectations for the fed funds path, inflation, recession risk, and balance sheet assumptions.

Why It Matters

Survey-based policy expectations help show whether market economists expect easing, steady policy, or a firmer policy path.

Warnings
  • SME sheet names: Sheet1
Data Tables
Fed Funds Path Expectations
MedianHorizon25th Percentile75th Percentile
3.63%20263.63%3.63%
3.25%20273.13%3.38%
3.13%20282.88%3.38%
3.13%20292.88%3.38%
3.13%20302.88%3.38%
Balance Sheet and SOMA Expectations
ItemLatest PeriodMedian Expectation
Total Fed assetsApril 2026$6.73 trillion
SOMA assetsMid-May to mid-Jun. 2026$22 billion
Treasury holdingsApril 2026$4.40 trillion
Agency MBS holdingsApril 2026$1.99 trillion
Reserve balances2026 Q2$3.02 trillion
ON RRP2026 Q2$3 billion
Recession Probabilities
Measure75th PercentileMedian Probability
U.S. recession now14.0%9.0%
U.S. recession in 6 months30.0%25.0%
Global recession in 6 months35.0%30.0%
Core PCE Inflation Expectations
MedianHorizon
2.90%2026
2.30%2027
2.10%2028
Headline PCE Inflation Expectations
MedianHorizon
3.20%2026
2.20%2027
2.00%2028
2.00%Longer run

Sources·Manual SME file as of 2026-04-15·NY Fed Survey of Market Participants context as of 2026-04-15