Agco Corp
AGCOAbove valueHeld by 4 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2025-12-31Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- -13.5%
- Net margin
- 7.2%
- ROE
- 17.0%
- FCF margin
- 7.3%
Valuation · value band
Above fair value
Zero-growth floor
$34
Central IV
$51
Optimistic top
$59
Agco Corp (AGCO): A conservative value band $34–$59 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $51. Today’s price sits above that band (price $112 as of 2026-08-26).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
- Recent earnings are below the multi-year average, so the band uses the lower run-rate.
Revenue growth 0% (history declining, capped at zero) · moat 0 yr · discount 11.6% · Zero-growth downside $34
Price as of 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-26.
Method & numbers
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $45.41 – $58.03 · Greenwald zero-growth $58.96 · zero-growth base $58.96 · reproduction $33.89
Moat Commodity-like · terminal value 33% of present value · owner-earnings yield 5% vs 10Y 4.7%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$27.36 – $40.16 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (ok) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).
Buffett owner-earnings value$49.17 – $58.96 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 10.1–12.1% band (9–11% base + 1.1pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Net income is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized owner earnings anchored to the latest year — no peak-earnings capitalization (audit #2). Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (ok); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 1.1pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 5.1 years of owner earnings, adding 1.1pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $1.55B + capitalized R&D $860.48M（FY 2026, 2024, 2023, 2022） = $33.89 / sh. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Growth value gated to zero — no moat or ROIIC ≤ WACC, so no growth value is credited.
Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 12% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 5.1 years of owner earnings → +1.1pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 10.1%–12.1%.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 0% (history declining → capped at 0) · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 10.21%–13.05% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +1.05pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-08-26). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about 15.4% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 2.2% a year.
The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.
Even when the value band is low-confidence: use this to see what the price assumes — not as a cheapness confirmation.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
4 holders · $293.2M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -2 exited
- Value$246.4MWeight (prev→now)1.1% → 1.1% ▼
- Value$45.7MWeight (prev→now)0.1% → 0.1% ▲
- Value$753,000Weight (prev→now)0.2% → 0.2% ▼
- Value$429,962Weight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Agco Corp (AGCO) is held by 4 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $293.2M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Christopher Davis, where it makes up 1.1% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Jeremy Grantham (0.1% of its book), Robert Olstein (0.2% of its book) and Ray Dalio (0.0% of its book).
Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in AGCO, 1 added to existing ones, 2 trimmed, and 2 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
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Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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