Brightstar Lottery Plc
BRSLBelow valueHeld by 1 superinvestor.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2025-12-31- Revenue growth
- -0.0%
- Net margin
- 5.9%
- ROE
- 16.8%
- FCF margin
- -16.5%
Valuation · value band
Margin of safety
Zero-growth floor
$11
Central IV
$16
Optimistic top
$18
Brightstar Lottery Plc (BRSL): A conservative value band $11–$18 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $16. Today’s price sits below that band (price $11 as of 2026-08-26).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
Revenue growth 5% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 0 yr · discount 14.6% · Zero-growth downside $11
Price as of 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-26.
Method & numbers
Model cautions
- Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $11.88 – $18.22 · Greenwald zero-growth $13.02 · zero-growth base $13.02 · reproduction $4.07
Moat Below asset base · terminal value 34% of present value · owner-earnings yield 15% vs 10Y 4.7%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$-7.46 – $-3.73 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 97% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$11.29 – $13.02 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 13.0–15.0% band (9–11% base + 4.0pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 97% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 4.0pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 14.3 years of owner earnings, adding 4.0pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $-1.09B + capitalized R&D $518.59M（FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020） = $4.07 / sh. Reproduction value = intangible-inclusive net reproduction (tangible net assets + acquired-intangible reset proxy + capitalized R&D), ÷ diluted shares; tangible net assets alone are negative for this asset-light franchise.
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Growth value gated to zero — no moat or ROIIC ≤ WACC, so no growth value is credited.
Window FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 14.3 years of owner earnings → +4.0pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 13.0%–15.0%.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 5% · OE FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020 · Discount band: 13.16%–16.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +4.00pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-08-26). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
1 holder · $737,505 combined · this quarter +0 opened / -0 exited
- Value$737,505Weight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Brightstar Lottery Plc (BRSL) is held by 1 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $737,505 in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Prem Watsa, where it makes up 0.0% of the portfolio.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Brightstar Lottery Plc (BRSL) also commonly hold →
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- Cleveland-Cliffs IncCLF1 holder
BRSL's price is below its conservative value band. Browse all undervalued stocks by margin of safety
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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