Brightspring Health Services
BTSGAbove valueExpectations · demandingHeld by 1 superinvestor.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2025-12-31- Revenue growth
- +14.6%
- Net margin
- 1.5%
- ROE
- 10.2%
- FCF margin
- 3.1%
Valuation · value band
Above fair value
Zero-growth floor
$3
Central IV
$6
Optimistic top
$24
Brightspring Health Services (BTSG): Two methods value the business — a conservative owner-earnings DCF and a growth-credited Greenwald estimate, $3–$24 / sh. Today’s price sits above both (price $73 as of 2026-07-21).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
Revenue growth 6% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 10 yr · discount 14.6% · Zero-growth downside $3
Price as of 2026-07-21 · yahoo · DGS10 4.6% @ 2026-07-20.
Method & numbers
Buybacks over the years shown roughly only offset stock-based-compensation dilution — read them as maintaining the share count, not a net return of capital.
Model cautions
- Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).
- The two methods’ midpoints differ materially — growth assumptions warrant review (over 20%).
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $4.12 – $6.55 · Greenwald $12.75 – $23.95 (neutral $18.19) · zero-growth base $5.78 · reproduction $1.47
Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 35% of present value · owner-earnings yield 1% vs 10Y 4.6%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$2.73 – $5.78 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 244% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$3.82 – $4.40 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 13.0–15.0% band (9–11% base + 4.0pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 244% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 4.0pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 19.2 years of owner earnings, adding 4.0pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.
Asset floor: Reproduction value = tangible net assets + acquired-intangible reset proxy, ÷ diluted shares; tangible net assets alone are negative for this asset-light franchise (no R&D history to capitalize).
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Assumes a narrow moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 10 years.
Growth value: if the moat holds for 10 yr at ROIIC ≈ 298%, $6.97–$18.17 / sh (neutral $12.41). Conservative, not a forecast.
Window FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 15% (Average effective tax rate over 4 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 19.2 years of owner earnings → +4.0pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 13.0%–15.0%.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 6% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022 · Discount band: 13.10%–16.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +4.00pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-07-20). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. Two-method midpoint gap 104%.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about over 30.0% (outside the usual range) a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 19.6% a year.
The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.
Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 38 more years to hold up.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
1 holder · $60.7M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -0 exited
- Value$60.7MWeight (prev→now)10.0% → 16.1% ▲
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Brightspring Health Services (BTSG) is held by 1 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $60.7M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Connor Haley, where it makes up 16.1% of the portfolio.
Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in BTSG, 1 added to existing ones, 0 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-03-31. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Brightspring Health Services (BTSG) also commonly hold →
- Xpel IncXPEL1 holder
- Ncr Atleos CorpNATL1 holder
- Daktronics IncDAKT1 holder
- Cargurus IncCARG1 holder
- Toast Inc-Class ATOST1 holder
- Brink's Co/TheBCO1 holder
BTSG's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-03-31 · filed 2026-05-15
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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