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Brightspring Health Services

BTSGAbove valueExpectations · demanding

Held by 2 superinvestors.

Price$59.16
Holders2
Total value$181.0M

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

as of 2025-12-31

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

Revenue growth
+14.6%
Net margin
1.5%
ROE
10.2%
FCF margin
3.1%
Revenue $7.72B → $12.91B · 4y
What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

Above fair value

$9/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$59
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$6

Central IV

$9

Optimistic top

$59

Brightspring Health Services (BTSG): Two methods value the business — a conservative owner-earnings DCF and a growth-credited Greenwald estimate, $6–$59 / sh. Today’s price sits above both (price $59 as of 2026-09-01).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

Revenue growth 4% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 10 yr · discount 13.4% · Zero-growth downside $6

Price as of 2026-09-01 · yahoo · DGS10 4.8% @ 2026-09-01.

Method & numbers

Buybacks over the years shown roughly only offset stock-based-compensation dilution — read them as maintaining the share count, not a net return of capital.

Model cautions

  • Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).
  • The two methods’ midpoints differ materially — growth assumptions warrant review (over 20%).

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $6.58 – $10.24 · Greenwald $30.99 – $58.80 (neutral $44.52) · zero-growth base $13.24 · reproduction $2.38

Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 37% of present value · owner-earnings yield 1% vs 10Y 4.8%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$9.48 – $13.24 / sh

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 398% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).

Buffett owner-earnings value$6.36 – $7.44 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 11.8–13.8% band (9–11% base + 2.8pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022

v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 398% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 2.8pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 8.5 years of owner earnings, adding 2.8pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.

Asset floor: Reproduction value = tangible net assets + acquired-intangible reset proxy, ÷ diluted shares; tangible net assets alone are negative for this asset-light franchise (no R&D history to capitalize).

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

Assumes a narrow moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 10 years.

Growth value: if the moat holds for 10 yr at ROIIC ≈ 738%, $17.75–$45.56 / sh (neutral $31.28). Conservative, not a forecast.

Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 13% (Average effective tax rate over 4 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 8.5 years of owner earnings → +2.8pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 11.8%–13.8%.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 4% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022 · Discount band: 12.05%–14.76% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +2.76pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-09-01). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. Two-method midpoint gap 133%.

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

What the price is betting

Today's price pencils in about over 30.0% (outside the usual range) a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 19.6% a year.

The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.

Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 23 more years to hold up.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

2 holders · $181.0M combined · this quarter +1 opened / -0 exited

This quarter1 opened1 trimmed
Holders 1 → 2 · last 4q

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

Brightspring Health Services (BTSG) is held by 2 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $181.0M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Andreas Halvorsen, where it makes up 0.3% of the portfolio.

Other notable holders by value include Connor Haley (13.7% of its book).

Over the latest quarter, 1 of the tracked filers opened a new position in BTSG, 0 added to existing ones, 1 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

Also held by these investors

Investors holding Brightspring Health Services (BTSG) also commonly hold →

BTSG's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks

Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

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