Casey's General Stores Inc
CASYAbove valueExpectations · demandingHeld by 2 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
As of 2026-04-30Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-07-31 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- +10.2%
- Net margin
- 4.1%
- ROE
- 18.1%
- FCF margin
- 4.1%
Valuation · value band
Above fair value
Zero-growth floor
$99
Central IV
$148
Optimistic top
$172
Casey's General Stores Inc (CASY): A conservative value band $99–$172 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $148. Today’s price sits above that band (price $714 as of 2026-10-22).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
Revenue growth 5% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 0 yr · discount 11.5% · Zero-growth downside $99
Price as of 2026-10-22 · yahoo · DGS10 5.1% @ 2026-10-21.
Method & numbers
Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.
Model cautions
- Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $102.93 – $171.69 · Greenwald zero-growth $118.93 · zero-growth base $118.93 · reproduction $75.65
Moat Commodity-like · terminal value 45% of present value · owner-earnings yield 2% vs 10Y 5.1%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)
Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.
Normalized NOPAT from operating margin — not applicable when operating income is not reported separately. Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge (+ cash − total debt) — not applied (lens not assessable).
Years: TTM 2026-07-31, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
Buffett owner-earnings value$98.64 – $118.93 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9.7–11.7% band (9–11% base + 0.7pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-07-31, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (ok); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 0.7pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 4.4 years of owner earnings, adding 0.7pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $2.81B = $75.65 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Growth value gated to zero — no moat or ROIIC ≤ WACC, so no growth value is credited.
Window TTM 2026-07-31, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (No effective-rate data available; fell back to the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 4.4 years of owner earnings → +0.7pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 9.7%–11.7%.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 5% · OE FY TTM 2026-07-31, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 10.35%–12.72% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +0.72pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-10-21). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-07-31 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about over 30.0% (outside the usual range) a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 12.5% a year.
The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
2 holders · $11.5M combined · this quarter +1 opened / -0 exited
- Value$9.7MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▲
- Value$1.9MWeight (prev→now)New · 0.0%
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Casey's General Stores Inc (CASY) is held by 2 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $11.5M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Ray Dalio, where it makes up 0.0% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Jeremy Grantham (0.0% of its book).
In the quarter ended 2026-06-30, 1 of the tracked filers opened a new position in CASY, 1 added to existing ones, 0 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Casey's General Stores Inc (CASY) also commonly hold →
- Ss Spdr S&P 500 Etf Trust-UsSPY2 holders
- Microsoft CorpMSFT2 holders
- Lam Research CorpLRCX2 holders
- Alphabet Inc-Cl AGOOGL2 holders
- Apple IncAAPL2 holders
- Meta Platforms Inc-Class AMETA2 holders
CASY's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14· Yahoo Finance as of 2026-10-22· SEC 10-K + 10-Q (XBRL) as of 2026-07-31 · filed 2026-09-08·FRED 10-year Treasury (DGS10) as of 2026-10-21
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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