Commercial Metals Co
CMCWithin bandExpectations · fairHeld by 1 superinvestor.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2025-08-31Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-05-31 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- -1.6%
- Net margin
- 1.1%
- ROE
- 2.0%
- FCF margin
- 4.0%
Valuation · value band
In fair-value range
Zero-growth floor
$36
Central IV
$60
Optimistic top
$70
Commercial Metals Co (CMC): A conservative value band $36–$70 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $60. Today’s price sits inside that band (price $65 as of 2026-08-24).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
Revenue growth 7% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 10 yr · discount 12.0% · Zero-growth downside $36
Price as of 2026-08-24 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-21.
Method & numbers
Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $39.54 – $70.46 · Greenwald zero-growth $43.34 · zero-growth base $43.34 · reproduction $17.29
Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 44% of present value · owner-earnings yield 7% vs 10Y 4.7%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)
Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.
Normalized NOPAT from operating margin — not applicable when operating income is not reported separately. Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge (+ cash − total debt) — not applied (lens not assessable).
Years: TTM 2026-05-31, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
Buffett owner-earnings value$36.33 – $43.34 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 10.4–12.4% band (9–11% base + 1.4pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-05-31, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Net income is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized owner earnings anchored to the latest year — no peak-earnings capitalization (audit #2). Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (ok); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 1.4pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 5.7 years of owner earnings, adding 1.4pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $1.93B = $17.29 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Assumes a narrow moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 10 years.
Growth value not assessable — Operating income is not available across the window, so ROIIC / growth value cannot be computed.
Window TTM 2026-05-31, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 20% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 5.7 years of owner earnings → +1.4pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 10.4%–12.4%.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 7% · OE FY TTM 2026-05-31, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 10.60%–13.36% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +1.36pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-08-21). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-05-31 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about 8.3% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 6.6% a year.
About its own track record.
Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 16 more years to hold up.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
1 holder · $2.7M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -1 exited
- Value$2.7MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Commercial Metals Co (CMC) is held by 1 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $2.7M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Jeremy Grantham, where it makes up 0.0% of the portfolio.
Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in CMC, 0 added to existing ones, 1 trimmed, and 1 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Commercial Metals Co (CMC) also commonly hold →
- Microsoft CorpMSFT1 holder
- Lam Research CorpLRCX1 holder
- Alphabet Inc-Cl AGOOGL1 holder
- Apple IncAAPL1 holder
- Meta Platforms Inc-Class AMETA1 holder
- Johnson & JohnsonJNJ1 holder
CMC's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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