Conocophillips
Held by 6 superinvestors (COP).
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
Valuation
Valuation · two methods
Earnings Power & Asset Floor
Two intrinsic-value methods and a tangible asset floor — deterministic, not price forecasts or recommendations.
Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.
Conocophillips (COP): A conservative earnings-power estimate, $53–$72 / sh; today’s price sits above it (price $105 as of 2026-07-02).
An observation from two valuation methods — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Price as of 2026-07-02 · yahoo · DGS10 4.4% @ 2026-06-25.
Method & numbers
Owner-earnings DCF $53.11 – $71.60 · Greenwald zero-growth $70.81 · zero-growth base $70.81 · reproduction $51.63
Moat Commodity-like · terminal value 37% of present value · owner-earnings yield 6% vs 10Y 4.4%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)
Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.
Normalized NOPAT from operating margin — not applicable when operating income is not reported separately. Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge (+ cash − total debt) — not applied (lens not assessable).
Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
Buffett owner-earnings value$57.93 – $70.81 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Net income is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized owner earnings anchored to the latest year — no peak-earnings capitalization (audit #2). Maintenance capex or D&A unavailable → degraded to normalized net income (= average net income over the years shown). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the same 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy (theoretically the cost of equity is higher; v2 simplification, v3 to refine).
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $64.49B + capitalized R&D $232.20M（FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021） = $51.63 / sh. Total book value (equity ÷ diluted shares) + capitalized R&D; intangibles not separated — goodwill/intangibles unavailable this period.
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Growth value gated to zero — no moat / ROIIC ≤ WACC, so no growth value is credited.
Window FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 0% (history declining → capped at 0) · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 8.90%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-06-25). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
Ownership · 13F consensus
Who's buying it
Institutional ownership aggregated across funds — consensus strength and this quarter's moves. Describes actions, not advice.
6 superinvestors hold it · $4.04B combined
Largest holder Bill Nygren
Held by 6 superinvestors of Conocophillips (COP); this quarter 3 added, 3 trimmed (as of 2026-03-31).
13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days. Informational only — not investment advice.
Next · is it cheap
Want to see which stocks look cheap against a conservative value band?
Browse all valued stocks, ranked by value bandSuperinvestors Holding This Security
- Value$2.30BWeight (prev→now)2.8% → 3.1% ▼
- Value$1.27BWeight (prev→now)0.5% → 0.7% ▼
- Value$247.6MWeight (prev→now)0.8% → 1.1% ▲
- Value$208.8MWeight (prev→now)2.0% → 2.8% ▲
- Value$5.5MWeight (prev→now)0.9% → 1.3% ▼
- Value$4.1MWeight (prev→now)0.2% → 0.3% ▲
Ownership overview
Conocophillips (COP) is held by 6 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $4.04B in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Bill Nygren, where it makes up 3.1% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Dodge & Cox (0.7% of its book), Christopher Davis (1.1% of its book) and Donald Yacktman (2.8% of its book).
Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in COP, 3 added to existing ones, 3 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-03-31. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
Holders over time
Superinvestors holding this security over the last 8 quarters: 7 → 6.
Early quarters may understate holder counts due to data backfill — read the slope with care.
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-03-31 · filed 2026-05-15
Stay Updated
Curated 13F moves and valuation insights, straight to your inbox.