Conocophillips
COP高于价值预期 · 温和10 位超级投资者持有。
SEC 10-K · 基本面
生意质量
截至 2025-12-31估值口径：截至 2026-06-30 的滚动十二个月（最新 10-K 叠加未审计 10-Q）。
- 营收增速
- +4.9%
- 净利率
- 15.4%
- ROE
- 12.4%
- FCF 利润率
- —
估值 · 价值带
高于合理价值
零增长底
$69
中枢 IV
$97
乐观上沿
$118
Conocophillips（COP）：保守价值带 $69–$118 / 股（零增长底到增速封顶的乐观上沿），中枢约 $97。今日价格高于这条带（价格 $132 截至 2026-08-25）。
中间是主读数；右侧上沿是同一套保守假设下的乐观档，不是绝对上限。
营收增 3%（历史增长与基本面上限的较小值，受护城河封顶） · 护城河 10 年 · 折现 10.6% · 零增长下行 $69
价格截至 2026-08-25 · yahoo · DGS10 4.6% @ 2026-08-25.
方法与数字
Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.
保守内在价值带（零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF）加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。
所有者盈利 DCF $68.40 – $117.97 · Greenwald 零增长 $84.94 · 零增长基准 $84.94 · 重置 $53.96
护城河 特许经营（护城河） · 终值占现值 47% · 所有者盈利收益率 6% 对 10Y 4.6%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)
Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.
Normalized NOPAT from operating margin — not applicable when operating income is not reported separately. Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge (+ cash − total debt) — not applied (lens not assessable).
年份：TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
Buffett owner-earnings value$69.49 – $84.94 / 股
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
年份：TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Net income is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized owner earnings anchored to the latest year — no peak-earnings capitalization (audit #2). Maintenance capex or D&A unavailable → degraded to normalized net income (= average net income over the years shown). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).
重置价值 = 有形净资产 $65.35B + 资本化研发 $173.20M（FY 2026, 2024, 2023, 2022） = $53.96 / 股. Total book value (equity ÷ diluted shares) + capitalized R&D; intangibles not separated — goodwill/intangibles unavailable this period.
护城河读数：Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. Dual reproduction test unavailable (intangibles not separated). A directional reading, not a verdict.
假设一般护城河 · 竞争优势期约 10 年。
增长价值无法评估 — Operating income is not available across the window, so ROIIC / growth value cannot be computed.
窗口 TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · 贴现带 9%–11% · 正常化税率 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.
所有者盈利 DCF：增长 g₁ 3% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.14%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-08-25). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
估值口径：截至 2026-06-30 的滚动十二个月（最新 10-K 叠加未审计 10-Q）。
价格在赌什么
现价把公司未来几年的 owner-earnings 年增定在 8.5%；公司过去营收年增 15.6%。
低于它自己做到过的。
粗略地说，现价要它按历史营收增速再增长约 5 年，才刚好撑得起。
SEC 13F · 持有人
持有该证券的超级投资者
10 位持有 · 合计 $4.97B · 本季 +1 新建 / -0 清仓
- 市值$1.82B权重（上季→本季）8.4% → 5.5% ▼
- 市值$1.58B权重（上季→本季）3.1% → 2.1% ▼
- 市值$963.3M权重（上季→本季）0.7% → 0.5% ▼
- 市值$195.2M权重（上季→本季）1.1% → 0.8% ▼
- 市值$181.8M权重（上季→本季）2.4% → 1.8% ▼
- 市值$167.0M权重（上季→本季）2.8% → 2.1% ▼
- 市值$59.8M权重（上季→本季）0.2% → 0.1% ▼
- 市值$3.3M权重（上季→本季）0.3% → 0.3% ▼
- 市值$2.6M权重（上季→本季）1.3% → 0.5% ▼
- 市值$2.4M权重（上季→本季）新建 · 0.0%
SEC 13F · 说明
文字说明
文字说明
Conocophillips（COP）被 Compounder 追踪的 10 位超级投资者持有，合计申报市值 $4.97B。仓位最大的是 Ravenel Boykin Curry，占其组合 5.5%。
按市值，其他主要持有人包括 Bill Nygren（占其组合 2.1%），Dodge & Cox（占其组合 0.5%） 和 Christopher Davis（占其组合 0.8%）。
最近一个季度，追踪范围内有 1 位新建 COP 仓位，3 位加仓，6 位减仓，0 位清仓。
以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报，截至 2026-06-30 季度。来源：SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓，且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天，因此这是已披露的多头持有情况，并非完整全貌。
SEC 13F · 共持信号
他们还共同持有
持有 Conocophillips（COP）的这些人还共同重仓 →
COP 现价不低于保守价值带。 看当前击球区股票
数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-06-30 · 2026-08-14 提交
仅供教育与信息参考，不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报，可能滞后最多 45 天。
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