Cisco Systems Inc
CSCOAbove valueExpectations · demandingHeld by 9 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2025-07-26Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-04-25 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- +5.3%
- Net margin
- 18.0%
- ROE
- 21.7%
- FCF margin
- 23.5%
Valuation · value band
Above fair value
Zero-growth floor
$23
Central IV
$35
Optimistic top
$42
Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO): A conservative value band $23–$42 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $35. Today’s price sits above that band (price $112 as of 2026-08-26).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
Revenue growth 2% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 20 yr · discount 10.6% · Zero-growth downside $23
Price as of 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-26.
Method & numbers
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $26.28 – $41.96 · Greenwald zero-growth $32.93 · zero-growth base $32.93 · reproduction $8.53
Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 19% of present value · owner-earnings yield 3% vs 10Y 4.7%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$22.80 – $28.75 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: TTM 2026-04-25, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 101% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).
Buffett owner-earnings value$26.94 – $32.93 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-04-25, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 101% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $-18.28B + capitalized R&D $18.68B(FY 2026, 2024, 2023, 2022) = $8.53 / sh. Reproduction value = intangible-inclusive net reproduction (tangible net assets + acquired-intangible reset proxy + capitalized R&D), ÷ diluted shares; tangible net assets alone are negative for this asset-light franchise.
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Assumes a wide moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 20 years (earnings intact, ROIC stable over history).
Growth value not assessable — No positive growth reinvestment in the matured window, so ROIIC cannot be computed.
Window TTM 2026-04-25, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 17% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 2% · OE FY TTM 2026-04-25, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.16%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-08-26). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-04-25 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about 17.2% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 3.0% a year.
The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
9 holders · $760.1M combined · this quarter +2 opened / -2 exited
- Value$300.4MWeight (prev→now)2.9% → 3.0% ▲
- Value$231.6MWeight (prev→now)4.6% → 5.4% ▲
- Value$150.5MWeight (prev→now)0.3% → 0.4% ▲
- Value$41.8MWeight (prev→now)0.2% → 0.3% ▲
- Value$17.0MWeight (prev→now)0.1% → 0.0% ▼
- Value$10.4MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▲
- Value$3.6MWeight (prev→now)1.0% → 0.8% ▼
- Value$3.5MWeight (prev→now)New · 0.3%
- Value$1.4MWeight (prev→now)New · 0.0%
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO) is held by 9 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $760.1M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Jim Cullen, where it makes up 3.0% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Nicolai Tangen (5.4% of its book), Richard Pzena (0.4% of its book) and Thomas Gayner (0.3% of its book).
Over the latest quarter, 2 of the tracked filers opened a new position in CSCO, 0 added to existing ones, 5 trimmed, and 2 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO) also commonly hold →
- Microsoft CorpMSFT8 holders
- Walt Disney Co/TheDIS7 holders
- Amazon.Com IncAMZN6 holders
- Alphabet Inc-Cl AGOOGL6 holders
- Visa Inc-Class A SharesV6 holders
- Wells Fargo & CoWFC6 holders
CSCO's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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