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Delta Air Lines Inc

DALAbove valueExpectations · modest

Held by 8 superinvestors.

Price$83.08
Holders8
Total value$7.38B

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

as of 2025-12-31

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

Revenue growth
+2.8%
Net margin
7.9%
ROE
24.0%
FCF margin
6.1%
Revenue $17.09B → $63.36B · 6y
What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

Above fair value

$52/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$83
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$37

Central IV

$52

Optimistic top

$63

Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL): A conservative value band $37–$63 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $52. Today’s price sits above that band (price $83 as of 2026-08-26).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

Revenue growth 3% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 20 yr · discount 10.7% · Zero-growth downside $37

Price as of 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-26.

Method & numbers

Buybacks over the years shown roughly only offset stock-based-compensation dilution — read them as maintaining the share count, not a net return of capital.

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $37.06 – $62.81 · Greenwald zero-growth $60.44 · zero-growth base $60.44 · reproduction $9.27

Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 21% of present value · owner-earnings yield 5% vs 10Y 4.7%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$47.06 – $60.44 / sh

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Only one maintenance-capex method available; estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).

Buffett owner-earnings value$37.25 – $45.44 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9.1–11.1% band (9–11% base + 0.1pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Only one maintenance-capex method available; estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 0.1pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 3.2 years of owner earnings, adding 0.1pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $6.10B = $9.27 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

Assumes a wide moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 20 years (earnings intact, ROIC stable over history).

Growth value not assessable — No positive growth reinvestment in the matured window, so ROIIC cannot be computed.

Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 3.2 years of owner earnings → +0.1pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 9.1%–11.1%.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 3% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.25%–12.09% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +0.09pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-08-26). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

What the price is betting

Today's price pencils in about 9.3% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 28.8% a year.

Below what it has already done.

Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 4 more years to hold up.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

8 holders · $7.38B combined · this quarter +1 opened / -0 exited

This quarter1 opened3 added3 trimmed
Holders 6 → 7 · last 8q

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL) is held by 8 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $7.38B in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Warren Buffett, where it makes up 1.8% of the portfolio.

Other notable holders by value include Bill Nygren (2.2% of its book), Richard Pzena (0.7% of its book) and Stanley Druckenmiller (1.3% of its book).

Over the latest quarter, 1 of the tracked filers opened a new position in DAL, 3 added to existing ones, 3 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

Also held by these investors

Investors holding Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL) also commonly hold →

DAL's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks

Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

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