Deere & Co
DEAbove valueExpectations · demandingHeld by 7 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2025-11-02Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-05-03 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- -11.7%
- Net margin
- 11.0%
- ROE
- 19.4%
- FCF margin
- 13.4%
Valuation · value band
Above fair value
Zero-growth floor
$216
Central IV
$233
Optimistic top
$274
Deere & Co (DE): A conservative value band $216–$274 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $233. Today’s price sits above that band (price $635 as of 2026-08-26).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
Revenue growth 0% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 20 yr · discount 10.6% · Zero-growth downside $216
Price as of 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-26.
Method & numbers
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $205.22 – $268.84 · Greenwald zero-growth $273.62 · zero-growth base $273.62 · reproduction $88.70
Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 13% of present value · owner-earnings yield 4% vs 10Y 4.7%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$215.80 – $268.85 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: TTM 2026-05-03, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Only one maintenance-capex method available; estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$223.87 – $273.62 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-05-03, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Only one maintenance-capex method available; estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $17.88B + capitalized R&D $6.14B（FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020） = $88.70 / sh. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Assumes a wide moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 20 years (earnings intact, ROIC stable over history).
Growth value not assessable — No positive growth reinvestment in the matured window, so ROIIC cannot be computed.
Window TTM 2026-05-03, FY 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 0% · OE FY TTM 2026-05-03, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020 · Discount band: 9.16%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-08-26). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-05-03 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about 13.3% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 5.6% a year.
The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
7 holders · $3.05B combined · this quarter +1 opened / -0 exited
- Value$2.26BWeight (prev→now)6.3% → 6.6% ▲
- Value$556.9MWeight (prev→now)4.1% → 4.2% ▲
- Value$198.6MWeight (prev→now)0.4% → 0.3% ▼
- Value$23.5MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.1% ▲
- Value$8.0MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▲
- Value$3.2MWeight (prev→now)0.7% → 0.8% ▲
- Value$908,995Weight (prev→now)New · 0.0%
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Deere & Co (DE) is held by 7 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $3.05B in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Bill Gates, where it makes up 6.6% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Thomas Gayner (4.2% of its book), Bill Nygren (0.3% of its book) and Jeremy Grantham (0.1% of its book).
Over the latest quarter, 1 of the tracked filers opened a new position in DE, 1 added to existing ones, 1 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Deere & Co (DE) also commonly hold →
- Alphabet Inc-Cl AGOOGL6 holders
- Microsoft CorpMSFT6 holders
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- Meta Platforms Inc-Class AMETA6 holders
- Amazon.Com IncAMZN5 holders
- Alphabet Inc-Cl CGOOG5 holders
DE's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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