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Dexcom Inc

DXCMBelow valueExpectations · modest

Held by 1 superinvestor.

Price$92.34
Margin of safety−10%
Holders1
Total value$27.0M

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

as of 2025-12-31

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

Revenue growth
+15.6%
Net margin
17.9%
ROE
30.5%
FCF margin
23.1%
Revenue $1.93B → $4.66B · 6y
What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

Margin of safety

$102/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$92
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$20

Central IV

$102

Optimistic top

$133

Dexcom Inc (DXCM): Two methods value the business — a conservative owner-earnings DCF and a growth-credited Greenwald estimate, $20–$133 / sh. Today’s price sits below both (price $92 as of 2026-08-21).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

Revenue growth 19% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 20 yr · discount 10.6% · Zero-growth downside $20

Price as of 2026-08-21 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-20.

Method & numbers

Model cautions

  • The two methods’ midpoints differ materially — growth assumptions warrant review (over 20%).
  • Growth nearly matches the discount rate — the estimate is sensitive to assumptions.

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $30.31 – $132.68 · Greenwald $44.43 – $99.22 (neutral $73.86) · zero-growth base $24.91 · reproduction $9.56

Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 34% of present value · owner-earnings yield 2% vs 10Y 4.7%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$20.67 – $24.63 / sh

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 171% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).

Buffett owner-earnings value$20.38 – $24.91 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 171% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $2.50B + capitalized R&D $1.23B（FY 2026, 2024, 2023, 2022） = $9.56 / sh. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

Assumes a wide moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 20 years (earnings intact, ROIC stable over history).

Growth value: if the moat holds for 20 yr at ROIIC ≈ 155%, $19.53–$74.31 / sh (neutral $48.96). Conservative, not a forecast.

Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 18% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 19% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.19%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-08-20). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. Two-method midpoint gap 32%.

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

What the price is betting

Today's price pencils in about 17.9% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 19.2% a year.

Below what it has already done.

Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 12 more years to hold up.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

1 holder · $27.0M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -0 exited

This quarter1 added
Holders 1 → 1 · last 8q
  • Ray Dalio
    Value$27.0MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.1% ▲

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

Dexcom Inc (DXCM) is held by 1 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $27.0M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Ray Dalio, where it makes up 0.1% of the portfolio.

Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in DXCM, 1 added to existing ones, 0 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

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DXCM's price is below its conservative value band. Browse all undervalued stocks by margin of safety

Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

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