Broadcom Inc
AVGOAbove valueHeld by 13 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
As of 2025-11-02Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-08-02 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- +23.9%
- Net margin
- 36.2%
- ROE
- 28.4%
- FCF margin
- 42.1%
Valuation · value band
Above fair value
Zero-growth floor
$38
Central IV
$66
Optimistic top
$78
Broadcom Inc (AVGO): A conservative value band $38–$78 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $66. Today’s price sits above that band (price $329 as of 2026-10-16).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
- Capex doubled in two years, so maintenance is hard to pin down — read the band conservatively.
Revenue growth 7% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 10 yr · discount 10.8% · Zero-growth downside $38
Price as of 2026-10-16 · yahoo · DGS10 5.1% @ 2026-10-15.
Method & numbers
Model cautions
- Capex doubled within two years: maintenance is floored then capped at D&A (OE may look optimistic); Greenwald growth value is closed — growth credit stays in the owner-earnings DCF only.
- Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).
- Growth nearly matches the discount rate — the estimate is sensitive to assumptions.
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $41.91 – $77.81 · Greenwald zero-growth $62.00 · zero-growth base $62.00 · reproduction $11.90
Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 49% of present value · owner-earnings yield 1% vs 10Y 5.1%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$49.41 – $62.00 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: TTM 2026-08-02, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 67% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): maintenance capex floored at the D&A sustaining proxy (the growth-capex spike is not treated as maintenance). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$38.30 – $46.81 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-08-02, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 67% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): maintenance capex floored at the D&A sustaining proxy (the growth-capex spike is not treated as maintenance). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $-24.44B + capitalized R&D $20.51B（FY 2026, 2024, 2023, 2022） = $11.90 / sh. Reproduction value = intangible-inclusive net reproduction (tangible net assets + acquired-intangible reset proxy + capitalized R&D), ÷ diluted shares; tangible net assets alone are negative for this asset-light franchise.
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Assumes a narrow moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 10 years.
Growth value gated to zero — capex doubled within two years (AI-hog); growth credit stays in the owner-earnings DCF only.
Window TTM 2026-08-02, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 12% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 7% · OE FY TTM 2026-08-02, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.60%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-10-15). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-08-02 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about over 30.0% (outside the usual range) a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 21.7% a year.
The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.
Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 16 more years to hold up.
Even when the value band is low-confidence: use this to see what the price assumes — not as a cheapness confirmation.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
13 holders · $3.50B combined · this quarter +2 opened / -2 exited
- Value$1.23BWeight (prev→now)2.7% → 2.8% ▲
- Value$740.5MWeight (prev→now)5.8% → 6.4% ▲
- Value$662.6MWeight (prev→now)4.9% → 2.8% ▼
- Value$497.8MWeight (prev→now)2.5% → 2.0% ▼
- Value$201.0MWeight (prev→now)1.7% → 2.0% ▲
- Value$70.5MWeight (prev→now)8.3% → 10.6% ▲
- Value$56.7MWeight (prev→now)New · 0.8%
- Value$23.9MWeight (prev→now)0.3% → 0.3% ▲
- Value$7.3MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▲
- Value$2.2MWeight (prev→now)New · 0.0%
Show all 13 holders ▸Collapse ▾
- Value$672,017Weight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▲
- Value$392,630Weight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
- Value$302,956Weight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▲
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Broadcom Inc (AVGO) is held by 13 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $3.50B in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Jeremy Grantham, where it makes up 2.8% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Polen Capital (6.4% of its book), Chase Coleman (2.8% of its book) and Ray Dalio (2.0% of its book).
In the quarter ended 2026-06-30, 2 of the tracked filers opened a new position in AVGO, 1 added to existing ones, 8 trimmed, and 2 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. 1 investor has already filed for the quarter ended 2026-09-30. Their positions in the table reflect those newer filings, and the move counts on this page cover only 2026-06-30 filings. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
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Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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