Ecolab Inc
ECLAbove valueExpectations · demandingHeld by 4 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2025-12-31Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- +2.2%
- Net margin
- 12.9%
- ROE
- 21.2%
- FCF margin
- 11.8%
Valuation · value band
Above fair value
Zero-growth floor
$34
Central IV
$73
Optimistic top
$157
Ecolab Inc (ECL): Two methods value the business — a conservative owner-earnings DCF and a growth-credited Greenwald estimate, $34–$157 / sh. Today’s price sits above both (price $291 as of 2026-08-26).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
Revenue growth 5% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 10 yr · discount 11.6% · Zero-growth downside $34
Price as of 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.6% @ 2026-08-25.
Method & numbers
Model cautions
- The two methods’ midpoints differ materially — growth assumptions warrant review (over 20%).
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $49.71 – $87.55 · Greenwald $93.40 – $157.07 (neutral $124.02) · zero-growth base $56.96 · reproduction $14.40
Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 44% of present value · owner-earnings yield 2% vs 10Y 4.6%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$34.49 – $48.48 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 67% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$47.47 – $56.96 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 10.0–12.0% band (9–11% base + 1.0pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 67% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 1.0pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 5.0 years of owner earnings, adding 1.0pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $-2.81B + capitalized R&D $441.00M（FY 2026, 2024, 2023, 2022） = $14.40 / sh. Reproduction value = intangible-inclusive net reproduction (tangible net assets + acquired-intangible reset proxy + capitalized R&D), ÷ diluted shares; tangible net assets alone are negative for this asset-light franchise.
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Assumes a narrow moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 10 years.
Growth value: if the moat holds for 10 yr at ROIIC ≈ 106%, $36.43–$100.10 / sh (neutral $67.06). Conservative, not a forecast.
Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 19% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 5.0 years of owner earnings → +1.0pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 10.0%–12.0%.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 5% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 10.14%–13.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +1.00pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-08-25). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. Two-method midpoint gap 52%.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about over 30.0% (outside the usual range) a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 6.7% a year.
The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
4 holders · $1.54B combined · this quarter +0 opened / -1 exited
- Value$1.45BWeight (prev→now)4.4% → 4.2% ▼
- Value$76.4MWeight (prev→now)0.6% → 0.6% ▼
- Value$6.3MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
- Value$257,436Weight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Ecolab Inc (ECL) is held by 4 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $1.54B in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Bill Gates, where it makes up 4.2% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Thomas Gayner (0.6% of its book), Ravenel Boykin Curry (0.0% of its book) and Jim Cullen (0.0% of its book).
Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in ECL, 0 added to existing ones, 1 trimmed, and 1 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Ecolab Inc (ECL) also commonly hold →
- Berkshire Hathaway Inc-Cl BBRK.B3 holders
- Canadian Natl Railway CoCNI3 holders
- Microsoft CorpMSFT3 holders
- Alphabet Inc-Cl AGOOGL3 holders
- Jpmorgan Chase & CoJPM3 holders
- Comcast Corp-Class ACMCSA3 holders
ECL's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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