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Ftai Aviation Ltd

FTAIAbove value

Held by 3 superinvestors.

Price$210.91
Holders3
Total value$7.7M

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

as of 2025-12-31

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

Revenue growth
+44.5%
Net margin
20.0%
ROE
149.9%
FCF margin
-13.5%
Revenue $366.5M → $2.51B · 6y
What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

Above fair value

$16/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$211
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$11

Central IV

$16

Optimistic top

$19

Ftai Aviation Ltd (FTAI): A conservative value band $11–$19 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $16. Today’s price sits above that band (price $211 as of 2026-08-19).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

  • Capex doubled in two years, so maintenance is hard to pin down — read the band conservatively.

Revenue growth 7% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 10 yr · discount 14.6% · Zero-growth downside $11

Price as of 2026-08-19 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-18.

Method & numbers

Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.

Model cautions

  • Capex doubled within two years: maintenance is floored then capped at D&A (OE may look optimistic); Greenwald growth value is closed — growth credit stays in the owner-earnings DCF only.
  • Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $11.65 – $18.79 · Greenwald zero-growth $12.19 · zero-growth base $12.19 · reproduction $2.85

Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 35% of present value · owner-earnings yield 1% vs 10Y 4.7%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)

Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.

Normalized NOPAT from operating margin — not applicable when operating income is not reported separately. Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge (+ cash − total debt) — not applied (lens not assessable).

Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

Buffett owner-earnings value$10.56 – $12.19 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 13.0–15.0% band (9–11% base + 4.0pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (ok); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): flagged; the spike is treated as growth, not maintenance — owner earnings carry extra uncertainty. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 4.0pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 18.9 years of owner earnings, adding 4.0pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $296.72M = $2.85 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

Assumes a narrow moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 10 years.

Growth value gated to zero — capex doubled within two years (AI-hog); growth credit stays in the owner-earnings DCF only.

Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 4% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 18.9 years of owner earnings → +4.0pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 13.0%–15.0%.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 7% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 13.21%–16.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +4.00pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-08-18). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

What the price is betting

Today's price pencils in about over 30.0% (outside the usual range) a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 49.7% a year.

The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.

Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 10 more years to hold up.

Even when the value band is low-confidence: use this to see what the price assumes — not as a cheapness confirmation.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

3 holders · $7.7M combined · this quarter +2 opened / -0 exited

This quarter2 opened1 trimmed
Holders 1 → 3 · last 5q

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

Ftai Aviation Ltd (FTAI) is held by 3 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $7.7M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Stanley Druckenmiller, where it makes up 0.1% of the portfolio.

Other notable holders by value include Ray Dalio (0.0% of its book) and Polen Capital (0.0% of its book).

Over the latest quarter, 2 of the tracked filers opened a new position in FTAI, 0 added to existing ones, 1 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

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Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

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