Garmin Ltd
GRMNAbove valueExpectations · demandingHeld by 2 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2025-12-27Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-03-28 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- +15.1%
- Net margin
- 23.0%
- ROE
- 18.5%
- FCF margin
- 18.8%
Valuation · value band
Above fair value
Zero-growth floor
$79
Central IV
$184
Optimistic top
$243
Garmin Ltd (GRMN): Two methods value the business — a conservative owner-earnings DCF and a growth-credited Greenwald estimate, $79–$243 / sh. Today’s price sits above both (price $276 as of 2026-09-02).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
Revenue growth 10% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 20 yr · discount 10.6% · Zero-growth downside $79
Price as of 2026-09-02 · yahoo · DGS10 4.8% @ 2026-09-01.
Method & numbers
Model cautions
- Growth nearly matches the discount rate — the estimate is sensitive to assumptions.
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $92.75 – $227.55 · Greenwald $133.71 – $243.44 (neutral $194.91) · zero-growth base $104.95 · reproduction $55.79
Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 26% of present value · owner-earnings yield 3% vs 10Y 4.8%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$88.02 – $104.95 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: TTM 2026-03-28, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 78% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$78.74 – $96.23 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-03-28, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 78% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $8.52B + capitalized R&D $2.28B（FY 2026, 2024, 2023, 2022） = $55.79 / sh. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Assumes a wide moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 20 years (earnings intact, ROIC stable over history).
Growth value: if the moat holds for 20 yr at ROIIC ≈ 93%, $28.77–$138.49 / sh (neutral $89.96). Conservative, not a forecast.
Window TTM 2026-03-28, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 9% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 10% · OE FY TTM 2026-03-28, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.29%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-09-01). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. Two-method midpoint gap 6%.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-03-28 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about 14.9% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 10.6% a year.
The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.
Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 23 more years to hold up.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
2 holders · $316.5M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -0 exited
- Value$315.2MWeight (prev→now)6.3% → 5.3% ▼
- Value$1.3MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Garmin Ltd (GRMN) is held by 2 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $316.5M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Fred Martin, where it makes up 5.3% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Jeremy Grantham (0.0% of its book).
Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in GRMN, 0 added to existing ones, 2 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Garmin Ltd (GRMN) also commonly hold →
- Apple IncAAPL2 holders
- Intuitive Surgical IncISRG2 holders
- Cognex CorpCGNX2 holders
- Expand Energy CorpEXE2 holders
- Devon Energy CorpDVN2 holders
- Snap-On IncSNA2 holders
GRMN's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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