Garmin Ltd
GRMN高于价值预期 · 苛刻2 位超级投资者持有。
SEC 10-K · 基本面
生意质量
截至 2025-12-27- 营收增速
- +15.1%
- 净利率
- 23.0%
- ROE
- 18.5%
- FCF 利润率
- 18.8%
估值 · 价值带
高于合理价值
零增长底
$74
中枢 IV
$185
乐观上沿
$235
Garmin Ltd(GRMN):两种方法为该业务估值 — 一为保守的所有者盈利 DCF,一为计入增长的 Greenwald 估计,$74–$235 / 股。今日价格高于二者(价格 $245 截至 2026-07-20)。
中间是主读数;右侧上沿是同一套保守假设下的乐观档,不是绝对上限。
营收增 11%(历史增长与基本面上限的较小值,受护城河封顶) · 护城河 20 年 · 折现 10.5% · 零增长下行 $74
价格截至 2026-07-20 · yahoo · DGS10 4.5% @ 2026-07-17.
方法与数字
模型警示
- 增长率几乎等于贴现率 — 估计对假设高度敏感。
保守内在价值带(零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF)加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。
所有者盈利 DCF $88.27 – $234.92 · Greenwald $125.87 – $220.38 (中性 $178.32) · 零增长基准 $101.58 · 重置 $57.73
护城河 特许经营(护城河) · 终值占现值 27% · 所有者盈利收益率 3% 对 10Y 4.5%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$85.25 – $101.58 / 股
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
年份:2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化:Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 62% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$73.70 – $90.07 / 股
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
年份:2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化:Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 62% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).
重置价值 = 有形净资产 $8.21B + 资本化研发 $2.97B(FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021) = $57.73 / 股. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.
护城河读数:Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
假设宽护城河 · 竞争优势期约 20 年(盈利未衰退、ROIC 历史稳定)。
增长价值:若护城河在 20 年 内维持于 ROIIC ≈ 81%,则 $24.29–$118.80 / 股(中性 $76.74)。保守估计,非预测。
窗口 FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · 贴现带 9%–11% · 正常化税率 9% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.
所有者盈利 DCF:增长 g₁ 11% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.05%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-07-17). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. 两法中值差 4%。
价格在赌什么
现价把公司未来几年的 owner-earnings 年增定在 14.0%;公司过去营收年增 10.6%。
市场要它明显快过自己一贯的水平。
粗略地说,现价要它按历史营收增速再增长约 21 年,才刚好撑得起。
SEC 13F · 持有人
持有该证券的超级投资者
2 位持有 · 合计 $310.7M · 本季 +0 新建 / -1 清仓
- 市值$308.9M权重(上季→本季)5.4% → 6.3% ▲
- 市值$1.8M权重(上季→本季)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
SEC 13F · 说明
文字说明
文字说明
Garmin Ltd(GRMN)被 Compounder 追踪的 2 位超级投资者持有,合计申报市值 $310.7M。仓位最大的是 Fred Martin,占其组合 6.3%。
按市值,其他主要持有人包括 Jeremy Grantham(占其组合 0.0%)。
最近一个季度,追踪范围内有 0 位新建 GRMN 仓位,0 位加仓,2 位减仓,1 位清仓。
以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报,截至 2026-03-31 季度。来源:SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓,且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天,因此这是已披露的多头持有情况,并非完整全貌。
SEC 13F · 共持信号
他们还共同持有
持有 Garmin Ltd(GRMN)的这些人还共同重仓 →
GRMN 现价不低于保守价值带。 看当前击球区股票
数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-03-31 · 2026-05-15 提交
仅供教育与信息参考,不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报,可能滞后最多 45 天。
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