Ww Grainger Inc
GWWAbove valueExpectations · demandingHeld by 2 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
As of 2025-12-31Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- +4.5%
- Net margin
- 9.5%
- ROE
- 45.7%
- FCF margin
- 7.4%
Valuation · value band
Above fair value
Zero-growth floor
$337
Central IV
$714
Optimistic top
$1,227
Ww Grainger Inc (GWW): Two methods value the business — a conservative owner-earnings DCF and a growth-credited Greenwald estimate, $337–$1,227 / sh. Today’s price sits above both (price $1,360 as of 2026-10-22).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
Revenue growth 9% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 20 yr · discount 10.8% · Zero-growth downside $337
Price as of 2026-10-22 · yahoo · DGS10 5.1% @ 2026-10-21.
Method & numbers
Model cautions
- The two methods’ midpoints differ materially — growth assumptions warrant review (over 20%).
- Growth nearly matches the discount rate — the estimate is sensitive to assumptions.
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $387.96 – $851.14 · Greenwald $651.54 – $1,226.87 (neutral $954.30) · zero-growth base $465.55 · reproduction $74.26
Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 25% of present value · owner-earnings yield 3% vs 10Y 5.1%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$373.90 – $465.55 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 73% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$337.37 – $412.35 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 73% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $3.50B = $74.26 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Assumes a wide moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 20 years (earnings intact, ROIC stable over history).
Growth value: if the moat holds for 20 yr at ROIIC ≈ 71%, $185.99–$761.33 / sh (neutral $488.75). Conservative, not a forecast.
Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 9% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.63%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-10-21). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. Two-method midpoint gap 29%.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about 16.9% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 9.0% a year.
The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
2 holders · $9.8M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -1 exited
- Value$7.7MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▲
- Value$2.0MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▲
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Ww Grainger Inc (GWW) is held by 2 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $9.8M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Ray Dalio, where it makes up 0.0% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Jeremy Grantham (0.0% of its book).
In the quarter ended 2026-06-30, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in GWW, 1 added to existing ones, 1 trimmed, and 1 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Ww Grainger Inc (GWW) also commonly hold →
- Ss Spdr S&P 500 Etf Trust-UsSPY2 holders
- Microsoft CorpMSFT2 holders
- Lam Research CorpLRCX2 holders
- Alphabet Inc-Cl AGOOGL2 holders
- Apple IncAAPL2 holders
- Meta Platforms Inc-Class AMETA2 holders
GWW's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14· Yahoo Finance as of 2026-10-22· SEC 10-K + 10-Q (XBRL) as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-04·FRED 10-year Treasury (DGS10) as of 2026-10-21
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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