Skip to content
Compounder
← Stocks

Harmony Biosciences Holdings

HRMYStrike zoneExpectations · modest

Held by 2 superinvestors.

Price$39.66
Margin of safety−74%
Holders2
Total value$9.4M

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

as of 2025-12-31

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

Revenue growth
+21.5%
Net margin
18.3%
ROE
18.2%
FCF margin
40.1%
Revenue $159.7M → $868.5M · 6y
What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

Margin of safety

$150/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$40
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$28

Central IV

$150

Optimistic top

$196

Harmony Biosciences Holdings (HRMY): Two methods value the business — a conservative owner-earnings DCF and a growth-credited Greenwald estimate, $28–$196 / sh. Today’s price sits below both (price $40 as of 2026-08-26).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

Revenue growth 20% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 20 yr · discount 10.6% · Zero-growth downside $28

Price as of 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-26.

Method & numbers

Model cautions

  • Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).
  • The two methods’ midpoints differ materially — growth assumptions warrant review (over 20%).
  • Growth nearly matches the discount rate — the estimate is sensitive to assumptions.

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $42.22 – $195.88 · Greenwald $75.90 – $147.75 (neutral $114.73) · zero-growth base $49.58 · reproduction $21.70

Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 34% of present value · owner-earnings yield 8% vs 10Y 4.7%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$41.79 – $49.58 / sh

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex unavailable → degraded to the v1 simplification (maintenance capex = D&A, so the depreciation add-back nets to zero). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).

Buffett owner-earnings value$27.79 – $33.96 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex or D&A unavailable → degraded to normalized net income (= average net income over the years shown). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $921.75M + capitalized R&D $352.97M（FY 2026, 2024, 2023, 2022） = $21.70 / sh. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

Assumes a wide moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 20 years (earnings intact, ROIC stable over history).

Growth value: if the moat holds for 20 yr at ROIIC ≈ 247%, $26.32–$98.17 / sh (neutral $65.15). Conservative, not a forecast.

Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 2% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 20% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.16%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-08-26). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. Two-method midpoint gap 27%.

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

What the price is betting

Today's price pencils in about 3.5% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 38.1% a year.

Below what it has already done.

Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 1 more years to hold up.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

2 holders · $9.4M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -0 exited

This quarter2 trimmed
Holders 1 → 2 · last 4q

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

Harmony Biosciences Holdings (HRMY) is held by 2 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $9.4M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Ray Dalio, where it makes up 0.0% of the portfolio.

Other notable holders by value include Jeremy Grantham (0.0% of its book).

Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in HRMY, 0 added to existing ones, 2 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

Also held by these investors

Investors holding Harmony Biosciences Holdings (HRMY) also commonly hold →

HRMY's price sits below its conservative value band. See the full strike-zone list

Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

Stay Updated

New-quarter 13F moves and valuation updates, to your inbox.