H World Group Ltd-Adr
HTHTAbove valueExpectations · fairHeld by 3 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2025-12-31- Revenue growth
- +10.5%
- Net margin
- 20.1%
- ROE
- 39.7%
- FCF margin
- —
Valuation · value band
Above fair value
Zero-growth floor
$13
Central IV
$22
Optimistic top
$27
H World Group Ltd-Adr (HTHT): A conservative value band $13–$27 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $22. Today’s price sits above that band (price $49 as of 2026-08-25).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
Revenue growth 7% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 10 yr · discount 10.6% · Zero-growth downside $13
Price as of 2026-08-25 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-24.
Method & numbers
Model cautions
- Growth nearly matches the discount rate — the estimate is sensitive to assumptions.
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $13.77 – $27.24 · Greenwald zero-growth $16.76 · zero-growth base $16.76 · reproduction $1.03
Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 50% of present value · owner-earnings yield 3% vs 10Y 4.7%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$14.08 – $16.76 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex unavailable → degraded to the v1 simplification (maintenance capex = D&A, so the depreciation add-back nets to zero). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$12.58 – $15.38 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex or D&A unavailable → degraded to normalized net income (= average net income over the years shown). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $336.00M = $1.03 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Assumes a narrow moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 10 years.
Growth value not assessable — No positive growth reinvestment in the matured window, so ROIIC cannot be computed.
Window FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 14% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 7% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.20%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-08-24). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about 22.2% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 19.0% a year.
About its own track record.
Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 11 more years to hold up.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
3 holders · $53.8M combined · this quarter +1 opened / -0 exited
- Value$23.8MWeight (prev→now)New · 0.3%
- Value$21.4MWeight (prev→now)7.3% → 5.6% ▼
- Value$8.6MWeight (prev→now)0.6% → 0.4% ▼
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
H World Group Ltd-Adr (HTHT) is held by 3 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $53.8M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Sarah Ketterer, where it makes up 0.3% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Robert Vinall (5.6% of its book) and Mason Hawkins (0.4% of its book).
Over the latest quarter, 1 of the tracked filers opened a new position in HTHT, 0 added to existing ones, 2 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding H World Group Ltd-Adr (HTHT) also commonly hold →
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HTHT's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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